Will an Anti-DPP Coalition be formed?

* Though the 2024 presidential election is still five-plus months away, the list of contenders remains in a state of flux. Other than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) nominee, William Lai, the opposition camp--including the Kuomintang (KMT), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and Foxconn founder Terry Gou--remains divided and far from forming a united ticket to compete against the DPP. As such, most polls believe, if the election were held today, Lai will handily win the race with approximately 38-40% of the popular vote.

* The opposition camp knows the math well, and neither the KMT nor the TPP stands a chance at winning all the marbles. Though efforts have intensified behind the scene, progress has been limited to sporadic photo-ops. This has made the rank-and-file very antsy and allegiance divided. The KMT plans to hold its plenary session on July 23 to make Hou You-yi's nomination official. The remaining challenge is to: (1) whether Gou would return to the KMT after an unsuccessful nomination bid, and (2) whether an unified ticket is possible with TPP's Ko Wen-je?

* Unity has always been a lofty goal for the KMT, beginning with the division between Lian Chan and James Soong in the 2000 presidential election. In a fundamental sense, unity has been the Achilles' Heel for the KMT for many decades. Things are not particularly promising in this election cycle.

* The attention then turns to former Taipei Mayor Ke, specifically whether he would stay in the race until the end. Ke has positioned himself comfortably at the second place in recent polls, with a sizable lead over others for those 40 and under. It's hard to imagine that Ke's poll number would fluctuate much, but the lead he currently enjoys over Ho could narrow. If, and when, that happens, the KMT may be in a better position to negotiate with the TPP on forging an alliance, or forming a combined ticket. The race to gain an outright majority would be another area of give-and-take. Though trained as a physician, Ke has become a shrewd politician after serving as Taipei mayor for eight years. He will make the deal when he gains a solid footing in the domestic political landscape and senses the upside far outweighs the negatives.