What Would Gou Do Next?

* The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) will hold a party plenary meeting on Saturday, July 18, at which time it will make the nomination of New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi for president official. Though the session is just days away, many moving parts are still in play that would make Hou's expected nomination uncertain, unpredictable, and uncomfortable, at least for some.

* The biggest question centers around the true intentions of Foxconn founder Terry Gou and his next step. While some still grabbing onto the slim chance that the KMT would change its presidential nominee, like it did in 2016, and go with someone like Gou instead. In addition, the party is clearly divided between those supporting Hou and those supporting Gou. There is no indication that the intra-party healing is imminent, or set to begin soon after July 18.

* Unity has always been a big problem with the KMT. Though reasons are many, most of which have centered on the party's practice of doing things in "the black box." The lack of transparency creates resentment and raises doubts about fairness. For a party deeply rooted in fifty years of monopoly on power, it is a hard habit to break as the privileged few continue to manipulate relations among the contending factions and personalities.

* We don't anticipate a last-minute change of the KMT presidential nominee, and we also believe the KMT will fare poorly at the polls next January 13. In all likelihood, Gou WILL NOT rejoin the KMT. In fact, he's been planning an islandwide signature drive to meet the thresholds necessary as a write-in, independent candidate. It will be a long and arduous process and a severe test of the collective will behind Gou's presidential ambition. We'll find out in the next few months.