Wednesday, May 15, 2019


* 在媒體專訪中, 高雄市長韓國瑜拋出「當選總統,高雄上班」的議題,引起各界討論。不分黨派,南部縣市首長及民眾普遍表示歡迎,凸顯台灣南部長期被忽略的鬱悶與不滿。但其他地區的政治人物與民眾紛紛表示反對,甚至提出應該到中部、東部等不同地區上班,以期達到「公平與平衡」,頓時間可真是「一人一把哨,各吹各的調」。

* 韓國瑜提出高雄上班的想法,當然有他的戰略考量,主要還是希望避開「落跑市長」的包袱、甚至罵名,表示他繼續留在高雄。但還是常讓人感覺似乎嘴巴講得太多、太快、太滿,做為地方首長有時可以天馬行空,丟一些風向球、看看大家的反應如何。但一個要參與明年大選的人,還是宜謹言慎行,沒有共識的議題,搶新聞標題無可厚非,但做國家領導人反而會引起反感,更何況在迪士尼、探勘石油、辦賽馬等議題還備受質疑時,應該避免給反對人士更多攻擊自己的材料。

* 更何況現在的管理學,強調的是「行動管理」,除了醫生、律師、會計師等傳統的白領工作,誰會在乎辦公室在哪裡?國家領導人在哪裡,國政重心就在哪裡。企業領袖都知道這樣的道理,想當總統的人不可以不知道,而自身的思維、行為更不應該停留在過去。

* 遷都高雄不是不可能,但普遍認為牽扯太廣、爭議太多,短期內台灣內部不易有共識。下一個當選總統的人應該先做到「兩岸和平、台灣安全:打拚經濟,人民有錢」,其他的就當作選舉的噪音與候選人的造勢花招吧!

Monday, May 13, 2019

Where is the beef?

* As presidential primaries heat up, prospective candidates have stepped up attacks of rivals. From whether nomination opinion polls should include mobil numbers to the necessity of free trade zones, differences between presidential hopefuls have, unfortunately, mostly followed partisan lines, not substantively.

* At the same time, there is no indication that an intra-party compromise appears likely since no one is willing to compromise. With the window of cooperation closing fast, post-primary party unity looms large for both major parties when the presidential campaign kicks off in early fall.

*  It essentially comes down to a two-person race in each of the two major parties--the ruling DPP and the KMT. For the DPP, President Tsai Ing-wen and former Premier William Ching-teh Lai remain in a tight race, with Lai's once double-digit lead shrinking fast. The postponement of the primary deadline to end of May may give Tsai a bit more breathing room, and that may just be enough.

* As for the KMT, the nomination will be decided between Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Foxconn Chairperson Terry Gou. While Han continues to lead over Gou, the momentum seems to be shifting behind the richest man in Taiwan. The bigger challenge for the KMT is not getting one of them nominated, but how to forge party unity once the primary is over. Judging from its history, that has never been easy, and there is no indication this year's race will be any different.