Is Lai a Shoo-in?

* Taiwan's incumbent vice president, William CT Lai, who is simultaneously the ruling DPP's presidential nominee, has been leading in the polls by a sizable lead since he was nominated in March. The lead grew in the last two weeks upon Lai's return from an overseas trip in mid-August. 

* The increased lead was actually not a surprise, but a carefully engineered event meant to make Lai look "presidential." Beginning with interviews with major news, Lai received largely positive press coverage that was designed to ease anxiety resulted from his remarks on "being a pro-independence pragmatist." Though concerns over those yesteryear's remarks may never disappear completely, Lai has apparently made some people, particularly in Washington's policy circles, sleep a little better at night.

*  How about the non-DPP opposition parties? Though everyone talks about "unifying behind a single ticket," there has been little, if any, steps taken to make that a reality. That shouldn't surprise anyone either since: (1) democracy is an import. Having elections doesn't translate to people truly know what democracy is. It also happens elsewhere, including the US where a certain former president refused to acknowledge defeat and kept advocating "the 2020 election was stolen," and (2) the three presidential aspirants--KMT's Hou You-yi, TPP's Ke Wen-je, and Foxconn Founder Terry Gou--simply don't like each other. No one appreciates the value of compromise, which a fundamental idea in any democracy. Apparently it doesn't happen within Taiwan's opposition camp.

* The election is still almost five months away, so a lot could happen to make it truly competitive. However, unless either (1) the opposition can miraculously form a unified ticket, or (2) Lai commits a major misstep in the campaign, the election will be won by the one that once advocated dejure independence.