Monday, March 11, 2024

 Absolute or Relative?

* KMT legislators are contemplating changes to the "Laws Governing the Election of President and Vice President." Instead of declaring the largest vote getter the winner in future presidential elections, the KMT plans to have a run-off for the top-two vote getters if none gets over 50% on the first ballot. Taiwan People's Party (TPP) intends to join the KMT in amending relevant laws to produce future leaders with a popular mandate at, or above, 50%.

* Those opposing the planned changes claims that the ROC Constitution must amend provisions first, since any democratic election, as currently stated, is won by the largest vote getter. Though there are no provisions against a run-off, any constitutional amendment would require a three quarters majority in the legislature and a subsequent referendum supported by no less than 9,650,000 popular votes. In Taiwan's domestic politics today, that's a tall order for any constitutional revisions.

* In addition, given the political sensitivity associated with any planned constitutional changes, it may lead to strong reactions from Beijing, suspecting the ROC Constitution could be replaced someday. Therefore, it makes any constitutional changes extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid any fallout from mistaken interpretations by any country.

* Since Taiwan will likely have, at least, three candidates in future presidential elections, a run-off would seem to make sense to produce a leader supported by the majority. However, domestic constraints and international implications could make such efforts frustrating and futile. Though the KMT and TPP combined would hold a majority in the LY, it's not nearly enough if the planned target requires amending the ROC Constitution. The controversy, therefore, could make the planned actions moot and political irrelevant. 

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Orchestrating a New Cabinet

*  Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-teh has been busy putting a new administrative team together while adhering to incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's key policy positions, including cross-Strait relations. Since the ruling DPP is composed of factions, this won't be an easy task as factional balance needs to be maintained.

* In addition, with a minority DPP presence (51 seats) in the Legislative Yuan (LY), collaboration with either the Kuomintang (KMT, with 54 seats) or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP, holding 8 seats) appears inevitable. However, there doesn't seem to be any inter-party foundation to support such an undertaking, at least not on politically sensitive matters. It's therefore likely that Taiwan will see more legislative gridlocks in the next four years.