Thursday, March 28, 2019

Ready, set, go!

* With both President Tsai Ing-wen and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu returning today from overseas trips, the presidential primaries for both the DPP and the KMT are about to move up a notch, indications are that neither major party has a clear favourite, with the elections just nine months away.

* There doesn't appear to be much room for intra-party reconciliation between Tsai and former Premier William Chin-teh Lai. To launch his primary bid, Lai just came out with a tell-all book that detailed his differences with Tsai over issues ranging from independence to pardoning former President Chen Shui-bian.

* With Lai currently leading Tsai in various polls, the contest will be a hard-fought battle for both. Since recent efforts by party seniors at bridging the two sides have proved to be futile, most expect the primary to run its course and produce a DPP nominee by mid-April.

* The KMT, on the other hand, has its hands full with a field of five hopefuls (three already declared, two are undecided). Though he has made his intentions clear, Han Kuo-yu remains the clear favourite in the polls and among the rank-and-file. Han does not have a justification for running because he's been Kaohsiung mayor for just four months.

* If he runs and gets the nomination, Han will be under tremendous pressure, mostly from the city council and the DPP, to resign. When, and if, that happens, the DPP would likely exploit the opportunity and regain the mayoral seat it has held for over two decades in the subsequent by-election. All things considered, it would not be an easy decision for either Han to the KMT.

* As the weather turns warmer, Taiwan's domestic political scene is about to get a lot hotter. Barring something unforeseen, the DPP will have a presidential nominee by mid-April, but the KMT could take months, until it holds the next party congress in July to confirm the nominee.

Monday, March 25, 2019


* 台灣的國民黨及民進黨即將展開2020大選的初選,兩黨都不乏躍躍欲試的有志之士,雖然每個都強調「初選是過程團結最重要」,但在人人捨我其誰、有我無他的強烈「使命感」驅使下,最後可能還是「面和心不和、團而不能結」。

* 由於兩黨各有長期被看好的提名人,但計畫趕不上變化,這幾個月的發展卻讓原本的領先者(frontrunner)逐步落漆。原來自認會是「一人參選」的蔡英文,被突然殺出的賴清德搞得滿肚子的委屈,覺得難過又窩囊。在啟程拚外交前,蔡特地拋出「三條件論」,覺得對台灣、對民進黨,自己是唯一、也是最適合的人選,在在展現「捨我其誰」的企圖心,但面對來勢洶洶的程咬金,對於初選只能「暗夜吹哨」,有信心、沒把握。

* 相較於民進黨,國民黨的情況更艱難、變數更大。去年1124大選贏得超出預期,讓原本黨內領先的那顆太陽高喊「我是最強」、應該要退休的南霸天疾呼「給我四年」、以及保留「萬分之一機會」的黨領導決定退一步做「幕後的那隻手」,抬轎不願坐轎。但團結從來不是國民黨的強項,初選、協調之後,如果「新郎不是我」,太陽們之間的「團結一心」就成「一團心結」,遑論全黨上下共同努力了!

* 過去三十年來,台灣推動民主,各個層級的選舉讓人民當家作主,但民主的「」沒有落實民主的「」,人人都認為「我是對的、最好的」,每每結果不如預期的時候,怨天尤人,總覺得「你不懂我的心」,更對過程裡種種言語的攻訐難以釋懷、最終勝負產生的嫌隙揮之不去,初選會過去,但團結不會來。唉,誰叫民主是個舶來品呢!

Thursday, March 21, 2019