Rapid Changes in Public Opinions

 * In an election year, opinion polls are the most readily available indicator of how the campaign is going for each of the candidates. For Taiwan's presidential race in January 2024, there have been subtle changes that may evidence a dominant two-party system in Taiwan is under closer scrutiny and a changing political landscape is coming.

* According to the latest poll numbers, the ruling DPP has dropped over 6% in party approval and support ratings, while the KMT suffered another 5% decline from last month. Worse yet for the KMT, the former Taipei Mayor Ke Wen Je-led Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has overtaken the KMT and captured the second place behind the ruling DPP in the same category.

* Though most believe the TPP has the momentum and the support, especially among voters 40 and under, to make a significant impact in the campaign, most didn't expect that upward thrust would come so strongly, and push the KMT to the third place so quickly. If this pattern holds, Ke, as TPP's presidential nominee, is in position to fortify his candidacy and elevate the relevance of TPP in Taiwan's democracy.

* While the election is still seven months away, the KMT is cautioned not to be perceived, or always stay, in third-place from here on out. If that perception sticks, it's very difficult, if not impossible, for the KMT to be considered seriously in future islandwide campaigns. Its presidential nominee, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi, is currently embroiled in a kindergarten controversy with alleged misuse of medicine. More importantly, the inability to repair divisions from its primary has long remained the party's Achilles' Heel that would further undermine its political stature and influence domestically.