Dialogue, Dialogue, and More Dialogue

* Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), Sandra Oudkirk, made a statement that could signal a subtle policy shift in the U.S. management of cross-Strait relations.

* Ms. Oudkirk declared that, "Dialogue is good. Dialogue is useful," on Friday, June 9, in Taipei. At a time when Washington is seeking dialogue with China, the U.S. encourages the three Taiwan's presidential candidates--DPP's William Lai, KMT's Hou You-yi, and TPP's Ke Wen-je--to do the same.

* Although the U.S. has always welcomed cross-Strait dialogue between the two feuding neighbors, this time could mark the beginning of a more conciliatory approach toward China that the U.S. would like to see taking place before things get out of control, in and around the Taiwan Strait. The biggest threat has always been the risks of miscalculation, or misinterpretation, since cross-Strait dialogue has been shut down completely since 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen became president.

* Since Beijing has preconditioned the acceptance of the 1992 consensus before resumption of dialogue, it seems highly unlikely, if not impossible, that the Tsai administration would make any overture before the January 2024 presidential election.

* Among the three candidates, Lai once prided himself as a "pragmatic pro-independence advocate" is the least likely among the three to propose any concrete steps to resume dialogue. While Hou may be in a better position to make dialogue a reality after taking over the presidency, he has been elusive and reluctant to express his view toward the 1992 consensus, or his policy approach toward China. As for Ke, he does not appear to be a man of deep, personal convictions, especially on sensitive issues like cross-Strait relations. He would, however, periodically throw out ideas deemed appealing to the segment of the electorate, or the international audience, at that time. So, it seems too early to call if the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue appears imminent.