Risk of Marginalization

* According to the latest opinion polls, KMT presidential nominee Hou You-yi  has fallen further behind to third place, behind DPP's William Lai and TPP's Je Wen-je. This has put many rank-and-file members on the edge and are calling for replacing Hou, possibly with Foxconn founder Terry Gou. Though that possibility is remote at best, Hou has done very little, if anything, to repair intra-party cleavage and division since his nomination on May 17.

* In fact, Hou has spent the bulk of his time visiting retired, aging KMT politicians, "seeking wisdom" and accumulate support. This is a VERY, VERY old-fashioned campaign style once championed by the KMT in the 1990s. But most of the electorate does not know, or remember, these older generations of KMT leaders, especially for those 40 and under. In addition, Hou has avoided answering key questions on cross-Strait relations with China and Taiwan's nuclear energy. He might have been able to dodge those questions when he wasn't the nominee, but now as the nominee, his reluctance to respond has been largely interpreted as an indication that he is not ready to lead. That does not bode well for Hou and the KMT.  

* To be frank, Hou has never been a charismatic political leader. As a former policeman, his low-key, no-nonsense approach might have been great in crime-fighting, but that style is clearly outdated in Taiwan's animated domestic politics today. Moreover, he is especially behind the other two contenders among those under 40 and those with higher educational background. Sadly he has done little to broaden ties and deepen understanding with those voting blocks.

* Making the matter worse, Hou has not consolidated his campaign team with those at the KMT HQ. His lack of progress at integrating the two is, at least partially, a reflection of his plans to remain somewhat apart, on some policies, from the KMT. The intent might have been to try and capture those considered "middle-of-the-road," but the result so far has been the inability to solidify support first among the KMT grassroots. Though there's still time to turn things around, there's no indication that Hou's rebound in poll standing is either immediate or imminent. Stranger things have happened under similar circumstances in the past.