Before Opinion Polls Close...

* According to Taiwan's Presidential Election Law, no opinion polls can be made public ten days prior to the date of the vote. With the vote scheduled for January 11, 2020, no poll numbers could be revealed or published after January 1.

* Following KMT presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, calling on supporters to purposefully mislead opinion polls when asked, it is the first time in Taiwan's young democracy that polls are no longer creditworthy. It doesn't serve as a barometer reflecting the true standing of candidates in an emotion-laden race, and no one knows how the 1/11 vote would turn out. Though the gap between Han and the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen has been getting wider in recent weeks, few, if any, would take the poll numbers seriously. It is frustrating for some, but that certainly makes the final two weeks intense, engaging, and difficult to predict how the race would pan out.

* As for the fourth-time presidential also-ran, PFP Chairman James Soong, seemingly has remained stagnant in the 6-8% range. Soong's campaign appears to be an exercise for a select few every four years when the presidential race begins. 2020 is no exception. He did not make his bid known until late October. A make-shift campaign makes many wonder if he's serious. When the candidate does not appear to be serious, lackluster performance hence becomes the norm, which has been the storyline for Soong during the last twenty years.

Withering Away of the Third Force?

* With sixteen days left in Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections, the campaign remains a competition between the island's two dominant parties--the ruling DPP and the opposition KMT. Since public opinion polls have been largely discredited by KMT presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, it's difficult to know where the candidates stand--with any degree of certainty--with the electorate.  Some observers believe Han and the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen are separated by less than 5%, much less than what most polls have indicated. One thing is certain--the race will be tight down to the wire.

* While there had been heightened expectations on a third alternative to the longstanding Blue-Green dichotomy in Taiwan, such hopes were quickly dashed as PFP Chairman James Soong failed to earn the trust and secure the support from the middle-of-the-road voters. Soong came across not as a serious candidate who had been preparing for a 4th run at the presidency. This is why his poll standing has remained in the 6-8% range.

* While Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je had made it clear that he'll likely launch a presidential challenge in 2024, Foxconn Founder and former Chairman Terry Gou has left the door open but held the cards close to his chest. While Gou has mentioned plans to keep himself active and visible in the public domain, there is no indication that any of the plans are imminent. Besides, without a grassroots organisation throughout the island, it's tough to make himself relevant when the time comes for the 2024 campaign.

總統大選與兩岸關係

＊隨著第一場總統政見發表會的舉行，台灣未來領導人的兩岸立場再次引起各界的關注。雖然意識型態不同、國家認同有異，但幾次總統大選以來，政黨的兩岸政策卻愈趨整合。只要以民眾福祉、社會穩定、以及國家安全為優先的兩岸政策，都應該有理性的空間討論，找出務實可行的政策方案。

＊一個基礎：

台灣的未來必須由兩千三百萬人民以民主的方式決定。

＊ 兩個堅持：

堅持以和平、非武力、對等協商的方式解決兩岸爭議。

反對「一國兩制」，堅持台灣自由、民主、多元的共同價值與生活方式，永不妥協、絕不退讓。

＊ 三個尊重：1. 兩岸應尊重彼此制度與生活方式的不同，凡事「異中求同」，不應「有我沒你」。

2. 兩岸關係發展必須尊重兩岸人民的歷史情感與自由選擇，但不該有「大小之分」或「輕重之別」。

3. 中國大陸應尊重中華民國存在的事實以及台灣民眾參與國際社會的強烈意願，不應強橫阻撓、限縮台灣的國際空間。

＊ 四個認知：

海峽兩岸：1. 親近，不僅鄰近; 2. 分治，不會分離;

 3. 交流，不要亂流; 4. 合作，不談合併。

也就是：兩岸「親近但分治，交流且合作」。

＊五個超越：

超越黨派、超越族群、超越地域、超越世代、以及超越意識形態，團結台灣2300萬民眾，建構「中華民國的國家利益」（National Interests of the Republic of China on Taiwan），做為未來兩岸政策的基礎與路線圖。

2024已經開始？

＊ 台北市長柯文哲日前自爆應該會競逐2024的總統選舉，引起外界紛議。或許柯文哲是真情流露、由衷之言，也可能是因為他自己沒有參選2020，不是候選人容易失去話語權，亦憂心台灣民眾黨的立委選情，如果結果不理想，民眾黨未來的發展堪虞，參與2024的可能性相對降低。

＊ 有人說台灣充滿了政治，近年來政黨間的競爭造成對立，意識形態的差異也侵蝕彼此的信任，壓縮了理性辯論的空間，往往只問立場、顏色，不問是非。就在明年1月11日的總統與立委選舉如火如荼地進行、各個政黨與候選人使出渾身解數之時，提及2024的總統大選或許有些突兀，但在台灣的環境裡，一個不注意，下一場選舉就在你身邊。所以不管是什麼原因，柯文哲現在說2024其實也不嫌早，畢竟台灣民眾黨2020選不好，2024可能永遠是天邊的彩虹，充滿無限可能，卻又遙不可及。

＊ 江山代有人才出，四年後的台灣政壇絕對不會寂寞，有興趣參選總統的，柯文哲也絕對不是唯一。但因為還是有點遠，變數也多，政治人物是否應該先把手邊的事情做好，畢竟凡走過必留下痕跡，先做好A，有餘力再去想B，不要最後弄得進退維谷，騎虎難下，看看別人，別忘了想想自己。

The Final 30 Days

* Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections are roughly thirty days away. While there hasn't been any major shifts in poll standings of the three candidates, the KMT attempted to show intra-party unity on December 8 when former New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu accepted the appointment to become presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu's campaign chairperson. It was an undoubtedly a boost to Han's campaign amidst sluggish poll numbers. Indeed, anything that can steer the campaign back on track is welcome for Han and the KMT at this stage of the campaign.

* Han's poll standing has inched upward slightly in recent days following the controversy surrounding pro-DPP netizens who went after political rivals, ion and out of the DPP. Two were formally charged last week because of possible links to the suicide death of a Taiwanese diplomat in Osaka last year. DPP, of course, has been trying to distance itself from the incident, but damage is nevertheless done to Tsai's frontrunner position.

* With about a month to go, anything remains possible. However, it's going to be difficult, but not impossible, for Han to catch up. Naturally a lot of things will have to fall in place to make this race a real contest in the final thirty days. In addition, Han will have to stop making self-inflicted mistakes and restore credibility as a viable candidate. After a nine-month campaign, some perceptions may be difficult to overturn, but it's never too early to start.

In the Dark

* Uncertain if the strategy to mislead public opinion polls has worked, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has, at least, accomplished two things: (1) He has effectively marginalised PFP Chairman James Soong in the January 11 contest, making "tactical voting" among the pan-Blue voters very difficult, if not impossible, to administer since no one knows who's really ahead; and (2) Since polls have now been rendered "untrustworthy," both President Tsai Ing-wen and Han will have to finish the race "in the dark." It comes down to a question of loyalty--how strong is the support among the respective core groups? The one that remains committed, despite all the confusion and likely speculation in the final five weeks, will come out ahead.

* On the other hand, starting December 18, there will be four televised policy presentations for Tsai, Han, and Soong. Though they will offer the opportunity to see which candidate looks more presidential, they are not expected to be major momentum changers since there will be no exchanges between the candidates. There is ongoing discussion concerning possibly having televised debates later this month, but nothing appears concrete or imminent at this time. For Han and Soong, it is certainly high on their respective wish list since Tsai is the clear frontrunner. Things should become clearer next week if the proposed debates will happen at all.

Is He Serious?

* Since announcing his decision to launch his fourth presidential bid, PFP Chairman James C.Y. Soong has struggled and remained stagnant at 6-8% in most public opinion polls. With forty days left in the campaign, Soong is not expected to make much of a difference in the final outcome.

* Other than sporadic policy proposals, Soong has not come across as a serious candidate who's doing everything he could to win. His campaign so far has been a privilege of a few, not something ordinary people could identify with or participate in. It goes against most democratic principles when the candidate--in elections big or small--forgets the people.

* Though few thought that Soong would pose a threat to President Tsai Ing-wen's reelection, some had hoped that his candidacy would present a viable alternative to the Blue-Green dichotomy that has divided Taiwan in recent years. From what the public has seen so far, Soong is not the preferred candidate to deliver on that front.

* While Taiwan may need a "Third Force" to ease the partisan conflicts and confrontations, Soong may not be the ideal candidate to get the job done. The 20-year hiatus from 2000 presidential election when he was last considered a serious contender hasn't helped either. As a seasoned politician for over 40 years, many feel that Soong deserves a better ending to a political career that once had an instrumental role to play in the island's democratization--apparently something shared by many but not Soong himself.

A Misdirection?

* KMT presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu surprised most on 11/29 when he urged supporters to "purposedly mislead polls by pledging their unconditional support for the reelection of President Tsai Ing-wen." The immediate reaction was mixed. It gave further credence to claims that Han has not been able to attract middle-of-the-road voters deemed critical for an upset victory on 1/11.

* Long frustrated by poor poll numbers and his inept campaign to broaden support, this calculated move was undoubtedly a first in Taiwan's young democracy. Though not considered a desperation attempt to make the race competitive again, many believe Han's campaign has reached a bottleneck, with the election less than 40 days away.

* Amidst allegations against his real estate holdings, Han's image as an "ordinary person" has come under close scrutiny and threatened to unravel the "down-to-earth" theme that has propelled his campaign from last year's mayoral contest to this year's presidential pursuit. With time running out, a turnaround is not completely out of the question, but has become increasingly difficult.