Monday, December 30, 2019

Before Opinion Polls Close...

* According to Taiwan's Presidential Election Law, no opinion polls can be made public ten days prior to the date of the vote. With the vote scheduled for January 11, 2020, no poll numbers could be revealed or published after January 1.

* Following KMT presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, calling on supporters to purposefully mislead opinion polls when asked, it is the first time in Taiwan's young democracy that polls are no longer creditworthy. It doesn't serve as a barometer reflecting the true standing of candidates in an emotion-laden race, and no one knows how the 1/11 vote would turn out. Though the gap between Han and the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen has been getting wider in recent weeks, few, if any, would take the poll numbers seriously. It is frustrating for some, but that certainly makes the final two weeks intense, engaging, and difficult to predict how the race would pan out.

* As for the fourth-time presidential also-ran, PFP Chairman James Soong, seemingly has remained stagnant in the 6-8% range. Soong's campaign appears to be an exercise for a select few every four years when the presidential race begins. 2020 is no exception. He did not make his bid known until late October. A make-shift campaign makes many wonder if he's serious. When the candidate does not appear to be serious, lackluster performance hence becomes the norm, which has been the storyline for Soong during the last twenty years.

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