In the Dark

* Uncertain if the strategy to mislead public opinion polls has worked, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has, at least, accomplished two things: (1) He has effectively marginalised PFP Chairman James Soong in the January 11 contest, making "tactical voting" among the pan-Blue voters very difficult, if not impossible, to administer since no one knows who's really ahead; and (2) Since polls have now been rendered "untrustworthy," both President Tsai Ing-wen and Han will have to finish the race "in the dark." It comes down to a question of loyalty--how strong is the support among the respective core groups? The one that remains committed, despite all the confusion and likely speculation in the final five weeks, will come out ahead.

* On the other hand, starting December 18, there will be four televised policy presentations for Tsai, Han, and Soong. Though they will offer the opportunity to see which candidate looks more presidential, they are not expected to be major momentum changers since there will be no exchanges between the candidates. There is ongoing discussion concerning possibly having televised debates later this month, but nothing appears concrete or imminent at this time. For Han and Soong, it is certainly high on their respective wish list since Tsai is the clear frontrunner. Things should become clearer next week if the proposed debates will happen at all.