* With roughly 40 days left in Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections, President Tsai Ing-wen is poised to win the reelection in a convincing fashion. Barring something unforeseen, the margin of victory over opposition KMT's Han Kuo-yu might be larger than that of 2016, when KMT nominee, Eric Chu, lost by over 25% and three million votes to Tsai.
* The ruling DPP, on the other hand, is projected to win the majority of the 113-seat Legislative Yuan (LY) again. The final numbers may depend on what happens in the next 40 days, especially in some toss-up district races. In addition, with the DPP now viewed more favourably than the KMT, the ruling party will likely secure a larger share of the 34-seat at-large representation.
* IN spite of its impressive victory in last year's mayoral elections, so many things have gone wrong for the KMT in this year's contest. From the presidential primary to its inability to achieve and maintain intra-party unity, the outcome on 1/11 should not surprise many. From policy to leadership, the party will be under close scrutiny after the vote. Depending on the final vote tallies, it probably won't be easy to recouperate from the loss.
Thursday, November 28, 2019
Sunday, November 24, 2019
The Point of Diminishing Returns
* An alleged Chinese spy-turned-defector captured headlines over the weekend, when he claimed to have interfered in Taiwan's 2018 elections and made contributions to, among other things, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu. It quickly stirred up controversies on the campaign trail and substantiated claims that Beijing repeatedly attempted to influence Taiwan's domestic affairs.
* Given the potentially devastating nature of the revelations, Han's campaign headquarters was quick to refute the story. Han openly disputed the allegation and vowed to withdraw from the race if the allegation proved to be true. The swift response was critical to stop the rumour mill in its track. Later when Chinese court papers indicated the alleged defector was in fact a convicted fugitive, the ensuing controversies came to an abrupt end and avert further damages to Han's campaign.
* In the last few weeks, Han has been embroiled under allegations--one after another--concerning his real estate holdings and personal finances. He has suffered setbacks in the polls, but the most recent botched claims might have tipped the scale and reached the point of diminishing returns in the ongoing smear tactics against Han. In the remaining seven weeks, candidates are best advised to steer clear of any unsubstantiated allegation against the other. If deemed conspiracy-driven, the tactics could quickly backfire and make similar claims, past or future, irrelevant and counter-productive.
* Given the potentially devastating nature of the revelations, Han's campaign headquarters was quick to refute the story. Han openly disputed the allegation and vowed to withdraw from the race if the allegation proved to be true. The swift response was critical to stop the rumour mill in its track. Later when Chinese court papers indicated the alleged defector was in fact a convicted fugitive, the ensuing controversies came to an abrupt end and avert further damages to Han's campaign.
* In the last few weeks, Han has been embroiled under allegations--one after another--concerning his real estate holdings and personal finances. He has suffered setbacks in the polls, but the most recent botched claims might have tipped the scale and reached the point of diminishing returns in the ongoing smear tactics against Han. In the remaining seven weeks, candidates are best advised to steer clear of any unsubstantiated allegation against the other. If deemed conspiracy-driven, the tactics could quickly backfire and make similar claims, past or future, irrelevant and counter-productive.
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Now, Every Move is Critical...
* As anticipated, President Tsai Ing-wen nominated her rival in the DPP presidential primary, former Premier William C. T. Lai, to be her running mate for the presidential contest on January 11, 2020. While most believe this is the most formidable ticket for the ruling party, how well they will work together during the campaign and after the election, if they win, remains to be seen. After all, Tsai and Lai are very different people from personality to ideology. Whether they can truly bury the hatchet and move forward continues to raise some questions.
* Lai's nomination proves three things: (1) the DPP has a tradition of effectively reconciling intra-party differences and forge unity despite seemingly insurmountable odds. The formation of the Tsai-Lai ticket is another indication that that traditional is alive and well. (2) in his own words, Lai is a "pragmatic practitioner" for Taiwan independence. While his name on the ticket may help solidify support of the fundamentalists, it may also push away some light-Green and light-Blue voters who are unhappy with KMT presidential nominee, Kaohsiung Han Kuo-yu. And (3) Lai now has a leg up on all other DPP presidential aspirants for 2024, particularly the popular Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan. Though a lot can happen in four years, if elected, Lai is now in the driver's seat if he so desires a shot at the presidency in 2024.
* Following PFP Chairman James C.Y. Soong joining the 2020 field and Lai's nomination to be Tsai's running mate, shifts in candidates' standings in public opinion polls will take place accordingly. Since KMT's Han is expected to take another beating following controversy over his real estate transactions, the attention is on whether: (1) the Tsai-Lai ticket has solidified the DPP's lead as the frontrunner, and (2) Soong can make a significant inroads, possibly from 10% to close to 15%, following his formal announcement on 11/13.
* Lai's nomination proves three things: (1) the DPP has a tradition of effectively reconciling intra-party differences and forge unity despite seemingly insurmountable odds. The formation of the Tsai-Lai ticket is another indication that that traditional is alive and well. (2) in his own words, Lai is a "pragmatic practitioner" for Taiwan independence. While his name on the ticket may help solidify support of the fundamentalists, it may also push away some light-Green and light-Blue voters who are unhappy with KMT presidential nominee, Kaohsiung Han Kuo-yu. And (3) Lai now has a leg up on all other DPP presidential aspirants for 2024, particularly the popular Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan. Though a lot can happen in four years, if elected, Lai is now in the driver's seat if he so desires a shot at the presidency in 2024.
* Following PFP Chairman James C.Y. Soong joining the 2020 field and Lai's nomination to be Tsai's running mate, shifts in candidates' standings in public opinion polls will take place accordingly. Since KMT's Han is expected to take another beating following controversy over his real estate transactions, the attention is on whether: (1) the Tsai-Lai ticket has solidified the DPP's lead as the frontrunner, and (2) Soong can make a significant inroads, possibly from 10% to close to 15%, following his formal announcement on 11/13.
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
The Field is Set!
* As expected, People First Party (PFP) Chairman James C.Y. Soong announced the decision to launch his 4th presidential bid. He will team up with a top advertising executive, Yu Shiang, who has never run for public offices before.
* Though the extent id unknown, Soong is expected to attract votes from both the DPP and the KMT. In addition, if he is able to solidify the forces behind Foxconn Founder Terry Gou and Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je, Soong can command significant support from those unhappy with the intense Blue-Green dichotomy that divides Taiwan.
* The campaign will likely take a month, until mid-December, before the dust settles. Soong will, of course, try to overtake KMT's Han Kuo-yu and cause traditional Blue supporters to switch allegiance in a "jumping-on-the-bandwagon" scheme. If Han is marginalised, the KMT could be headed in a direction far different from last year's mayoral elections.
* Though the extent id unknown, Soong is expected to attract votes from both the DPP and the KMT. In addition, if he is able to solidify the forces behind Foxconn Founder Terry Gou and Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je, Soong can command significant support from those unhappy with the intense Blue-Green dichotomy that divides Taiwan.
* The campaign will likely take a month, until mid-December, before the dust settles. Soong will, of course, try to overtake KMT's Han Kuo-yu and cause traditional Blue supporters to switch allegiance in a "jumping-on-the-bandwagon" scheme. If Han is marginalised, the KMT could be headed in a direction far different from last year's mayoral elections.
Monday, November 4, 2019
Never Too Early
* Recent news reports have indicated that KMT presidential candidate is inching closer in opinion polls. Through a number of unconventional policy proposals on, among other things, youth and education, Han has, in fact, captured media attention and stirred up discussions, albeit some were controversial. This has effectively averted Han being marginalised in a hotly contested race.
* On the other hand, the ruling DPP has been complacent and reactionary in the last few weeks, unable to dictate the campaign tempo like it once did. With the HK protests somewhat becoming less of a campaign utility, some believe that the DPP has been scrambling to regain control over policy issues, particularly among voters 40 and under.
* With 60-plus days remaining, the race is by no means over. Though Han has been the subject of ridicule in recent weeks over the outlandish nature of some of his proposed policies, he has reasserted his relevance in the contest. Conversely Tsai has to be a bit more aggressive on issues and programs that are "deliverables." In addition, the margin for error is unusually small in the final phase of the campaign. Making fewer mistakes would be a welcome step for both.
* On the other hand, the ruling DPP has been complacent and reactionary in the last few weeks, unable to dictate the campaign tempo like it once did. With the HK protests somewhat becoming less of a campaign utility, some believe that the DPP has been scrambling to regain control over policy issues, particularly among voters 40 and under.
* With 60-plus days remaining, the race is by no means over. Though Han has been the subject of ridicule in recent weeks over the outlandish nature of some of his proposed policies, he has reasserted his relevance in the contest. Conversely Tsai has to be a bit more aggressive on issues and programs that are "deliverables." In addition, the margin for error is unusually small in the final phase of the campaign. Making fewer mistakes would be a welcome step for both.
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