The Point of Diminishing Returns

* An alleged Chinese spy-turned-defector captured headlines over the weekend, when he claimed to have interfered in Taiwan's 2018 elections and made contributions to, among other things, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu. It quickly stirred up controversies on the campaign trail and substantiated claims that Beijing repeatedly attempted to influence Taiwan's domestic affairs.

* Given the potentially devastating nature of the revelations, Han's campaign headquarters was quick to refute the story. Han openly disputed the allegation and vowed to withdraw from the race if the allegation proved to be true. The swift response was critical to stop the rumour mill in its track. Later when Chinese court papers indicated the alleged defector was in fact a convicted fugitive, the ensuing controversies came to an abrupt end and avert further damages to Han's campaign.

* In the last few weeks, Han has been embroiled under allegations--one after another--concerning his real estate holdings and personal finances. He has suffered setbacks in the polls, but the most recent botched claims might have tipped the scale and reached the point of diminishing returns in the ongoing smear tactics against Han. In the remaining seven weeks, candidates are best advised to steer clear of any unsubstantiated allegation against the other. If deemed conspiracy-driven, the tactics could quickly backfire and make similar claims, past or future, irrelevant and counter-productive.