* Within two weeks, the list of at-large seats for Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) will have to be submitted to the Central Election Committee (CEC) by each party and be made public. It's not just the number of seats but whether the list is inclusive enough to polish the party's image and secure broader grassroots support.
* There's been repeated news reports that both the ruling DPP and the opposition KMT are embroiled under intra-party strife along sectional and regional interests. Once public, the list could have profound implications on how the party-identification vote would go on January 11.
* On the other hand, the outlook of the People First Party (PFP) remains unclear regarding their presidential plans. Other political heavyweights have been linked to the possibility of forming an alliance outside of the Blue-Green dichotomy. The next two weeks should decide how and who will be the final contestants for the January 11 poll.
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
An Uphill Climb
* According to the latest opinion polls, KMT presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu still trails President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling DPP anywhere from 12-14%. With 73 days to go, it's undoubtedly a formidable challenge for a challenger that often goes off on his own agenda.
* With the possibility of a third presidential ticket looming large, however, Han may benefit from a PFP entrant that has shown to narrow the gap with Tsai. While there's been rumors that former LY Speaker Wang Jyn-ping may join forces with PFP, most believe PFP Chairman James C.Y. Soong remains the most likely third nominee in next January's contest. Things will become clear in the next 10-14 days.
* On the other hand, the political gains from the protests in HK in recent months might have come to an end in Taiwan's presidential election. The impact the HK protests might have had is no longer there. Barring someone/something setting off more controversies, the gap between the leading contestants will likely be narrowing in the coming weeks. Though the race remains far from too-close-to-call, the ultimate prize remains open for all parties concerned.
* With the possibility of a third presidential ticket looming large, however, Han may benefit from a PFP entrant that has shown to narrow the gap with Tsai. While there's been rumors that former LY Speaker Wang Jyn-ping may join forces with PFP, most believe PFP Chairman James C.Y. Soong remains the most likely third nominee in next January's contest. Things will become clear in the next 10-14 days.
* On the other hand, the political gains from the protests in HK in recent months might have come to an end in Taiwan's presidential election. The impact the HK protests might have had is no longer there. Barring someone/something setting off more controversies, the gap between the leading contestants will likely be narrowing in the coming weeks. Though the race remains far from too-close-to-call, the ultimate prize remains open for all parties concerned.
Monday, October 28, 2019
A Serious Contender?
* It's almost a foregone conclusion that former Taiwan Provincial Governor and chairman of the People First Party (PFP), James C.Y. Soong, will join the fray and make a fourth bid, which should be the last, at the presidency next January 11. Since the PFP secured more than 5%of the party identification vote in the 2016 legislative election, it is entitled to nominate a presidential ticket without going through the write-in process. In the next two weeks, the PFP will make Soong's candidacy public and official.
* As the only elected provincial governor of Taiwan, Soong was an extremely popular politician who once enjoyed an on-the-job approval rating of over 90% in 1997-98. With the "freezing" of the Taiwan Province, Soong broke off with the KMT and launch an independent presidential campaign in 2000. He came close of winning it all, but ended up losing the DPP's Chen Shui-bian by less than 3% of the popular vote. Soon subsequently founded the PFP and has remained its chairman for the last twenty years.
* Undoubtedly Soong is a seasoned politician who is extremely well-versed with Taiwan's internal and external affairs. Two factors that go against his candidacy are: (1) his age (Soong is 77 this year), and (2) his political credibility. While there is a sizeable portion of pan-Blue supporters who would not support KMT's Han Kuo-yu, Soong needs to convince the electorate that he is "electable," and he has the experience and a capable team to get the job done. It won't be easy and the time is running short. Besides his own presidential aspirations, how Soong performs at the polls next January 11 will have a bigger impact on the future of PFP.
* As the only elected provincial governor of Taiwan, Soong was an extremely popular politician who once enjoyed an on-the-job approval rating of over 90% in 1997-98. With the "freezing" of the Taiwan Province, Soong broke off with the KMT and launch an independent presidential campaign in 2000. He came close of winning it all, but ended up losing the DPP's Chen Shui-bian by less than 3% of the popular vote. Soon subsequently founded the PFP and has remained its chairman for the last twenty years.
* Undoubtedly Soong is a seasoned politician who is extremely well-versed with Taiwan's internal and external affairs. Two factors that go against his candidacy are: (1) his age (Soong is 77 this year), and (2) his political credibility. While there is a sizeable portion of pan-Blue supporters who would not support KMT's Han Kuo-yu, Soong needs to convince the electorate that he is "electable," and he has the experience and a capable team to get the job done. It won't be easy and the time is running short. Besides his own presidential aspirations, how Soong performs at the polls next January 11 will have a bigger impact on the future of PFP.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Looking Presidential
* Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has been an atypical politician in more ways than one. He began his political career early in the 1980s, elected to both local legislature and the Legislative Yuan (LY). However, after losing his bid to become an at-large LY member of the KMT in 2001, he was out of politics for 17 years before resurfacing in 201. His landslide victory in last year's Kaohsiung mayoral election was nothing short of a miracle, winning over 63% of the popular votes in a city long considered a stronghold for the DPP.
* Han might not have considered a presidential bid during the beginning months in office, but the political storm (called 韓流 in Chinese) he brought on made his absence from the KMT primary impossible. He was widely regarded as the best hope for the KMT-led pan-Blue camp to recapture the presidency in 2020. However, since his nomination as KMT's presidential candidate, many have seen him struggle to hold onto his support, especially among those considered the economics-oriented, better-educated groups.
* Among Han's strategic missteps, the most serious one concerns his decision to seek a presidential bid after only being in office for a few months. No amount of justification seemed able to bail him out of this one. Next, he has repeatedly remarked on things that he either didn't know enough, or simply just shoots from the hip, overlooking the potential ripple effects from those statements. When this type of behaviour happens with some regularity, Han has become not just controversial, but a controversy in himself.
* As stated in the ETRC blog before, Tsai Ing-wen's sizeable lead over Han is formidable, but not impossible to overcome. But Han and his campaign team have to start somewhere and sometime soon since there's only 79 days left. Start looking and acting presidential would be a preferred first step.
* Han might not have considered a presidential bid during the beginning months in office, but the political storm (called 韓流 in Chinese) he brought on made his absence from the KMT primary impossible. He was widely regarded as the best hope for the KMT-led pan-Blue camp to recapture the presidency in 2020. However, since his nomination as KMT's presidential candidate, many have seen him struggle to hold onto his support, especially among those considered the economics-oriented, better-educated groups.
* Among Han's strategic missteps, the most serious one concerns his decision to seek a presidential bid after only being in office for a few months. No amount of justification seemed able to bail him out of this one. Next, he has repeatedly remarked on things that he either didn't know enough, or simply just shoots from the hip, overlooking the potential ripple effects from those statements. When this type of behaviour happens with some regularity, Han has become not just controversial, but a controversy in himself.
* As stated in the ETRC blog before, Tsai Ing-wen's sizeable lead over Han is formidable, but not impossible to overcome. But Han and his campaign team have to start somewhere and sometime soon since there's only 79 days left. Start looking and acting presidential would be a preferred first step.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
A Game Changer?
* President Tsai Ing-wen and the ruling DPP bungled on the handover of fugitive murder suspect Chan Tong-kai from Hong Kong. The reversal of earlier decision not to accept Chan caused an uproar in Taiwan just 80 days before next January's presidential election. While Tsai retains a sizeable lead over the KMT challenger, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, stranger things have happened before in the island's democratic transformation.
* In addition to media scrutiny, the opposition KMT tried to tie the controversy to the alleged manipulation by the DPP for campaign purposes over the protests in Hong Kong in recent months. If the allegation is true, it has lead to substantial advantage for Tsai and the DPP, as evidenced by the poll numbers since August.
* As the war of words continues between the HK SAR authorities and Taipei, the fate of the fugitive murderer Chan remains unclear. How the ruling DPP handles the handover, if it happens, could have a profound impact on how the Taiwan public views and reacts to highly sensitive issues like political sovereignty and jurisdictional independence. Neither Tsai nor Han could afford a misstep that may result in a game changer, especially over campaign momentum in the final 80 days.
* In addition to media scrutiny, the opposition KMT tried to tie the controversy to the alleged manipulation by the DPP for campaign purposes over the protests in Hong Kong in recent months. If the allegation is true, it has lead to substantial advantage for Tsai and the DPP, as evidenced by the poll numbers since August.
* As the war of words continues between the HK SAR authorities and Taipei, the fate of the fugitive murderer Chan remains unclear. How the ruling DPP handles the handover, if it happens, could have a profound impact on how the Taiwan public views and reacts to highly sensitive issues like political sovereignty and jurisdictional independence. Neither Tsai nor Han could afford a misstep that may result in a game changer, especially over campaign momentum in the final 80 days.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
The Second Coming of Another Han-Liu (韓流)?
* According the latest polls, KMT presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu still trails President Tsai Ing-wen, anywhere from 12-18%. The lead is not insignificant and has been steadily increasing since August. Theoretically it is not impossible for Han to catch up in the remaining 81 days, but a lot of things have to go right in order for that to happen.
* Though the pre-announcement expectations were high, Han's mainland policy has turned out to be largely a political dud. Besides inheriting the core of the national security team from the Ma Ying-jeou administration of 2008-2016, Han's cross-Strait policy looks to continue Ma's position foundation on the 1992 consensus--something that has become controversial within Taiwan and may not be enough to rejuvenate cross-Strait ties, if Han wins, after the January 11 vote.
* Everyone loves a winner. If Han continues to lag behind Tsai in public opinion polls, the impression that he's not "electable" will become harder to get rid of. Hence, the likelihood of winning will play a crucial role in an emotion-laden campaign for the top political job in Taiwan.
* Though the pre-announcement expectations were high, Han's mainland policy has turned out to be largely a political dud. Besides inheriting the core of the national security team from the Ma Ying-jeou administration of 2008-2016, Han's cross-Strait policy looks to continue Ma's position foundation on the 1992 consensus--something that has become controversial within Taiwan and may not be enough to rejuvenate cross-Strait ties, if Han wins, after the January 11 vote.
* Everyone loves a winner. If Han continues to lag behind Tsai in public opinion polls, the impression that he's not "electable" will become harder to get rid of. Hence, the likelihood of winning will play a crucial role in an emotion-laden campaign for the top political job in Taiwan.
Saturday, October 19, 2019
Why Do Businesses Need Political Risks Assessment?
l Rapidly
changing geopolitical developments complicate investment and business decisions
from South America to Asia. Potential “hot spots” around the world, including
cross-Strait ties between China and Taiwan, could expose business operations and
corporate decision-making to political risks outside the traditional
parameters.
l Escalating
trade tension between the United States and China has slowed global economic
growth and clouded economic outlook for, at least, the foreseeable future. The
punitive tariffs imposed by both might have produced unexpected fiscal windfalls,
but they have also damaged the foundation critical for the continued US-China
business partnership.
l As the trade
war between the world’s two leading economies inches, however slowly, toward an
eventual resolution, there will emerge the need to provide in-depth advice to
corporate leaders weighing options pertinent to continued operations and
potential investments in significantly-altered playing fields, particularly in
China. The advice corporations seek must be in tuned with local knowledge, while
meeting international standards, practices, and expectations.
About
us
l We are a
group of foreign-educated, mid-career business professionals and academics in Taiwan with
extensive knowledge on how China--in and out of the public domain-- operates and what foreign corporations are
looking for when venturing further into the world’s largest market. We have
long-established relationships with corporations, market researchers and think
tankers in the region and around the world.
l For businesses that are looking for commercial trends and opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, we offer services that meet YOUR interests and objectives, not ours. We understand the anxiety when businesses venture into this part of the world, and we comprehend the complexity of decision-making in a completely different political, social, and cultural setting. Amidst uncertainties and unknowns, we will assist in reducing your risks and heightening the likelihood of success as your business embarks on a new chapter.
l We also seek and welcome potential investors as our business continues to expand. For inquiries, please contact ETRC Group at: etrc.group@gmail.com, or call us at +886-2-2707-7176; +886-932-186-028.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Who's Number 2?
* With both the presidential nominees set for both the DPP and the KMT, media attention now shifts to will the respective running mates will be. Current Vice President Chen Chien-jen already declined joining President Tsai Ing-wen for another term, so the expectation is that Tsai could team up with William Ching-teh Lai, who challenged Tsai in the party primary. It remains unclear if they can bury the hatches and join forces in the general election.
* With Lai currently in the US campaigning for Tsai, many regard that as the first step in forming the alliance that most rank-and-file DPP members would support and hope for.
* As for KMT's Han Kuo-yu, a number of names have been tossed around in media reports during the last few weeks, but apparently nothing has been set. Since Han is behind in the polls, his choice of running mate should carry more weight than Tsai's. However, it's still the top of the ticket that makes the difference. It is certainly no exception this year.
* With Lai currently in the US campaigning for Tsai, many regard that as the first step in forming the alliance that most rank-and-file DPP members would support and hope for.
* As for KMT's Han Kuo-yu, a number of names have been tossed around in media reports during the last few weeks, but apparently nothing has been set. Since Han is behind in the polls, his choice of running mate should carry more weight than Tsai's. However, it's still the top of the ticket that makes the difference. It is certainly no exception this year.
88 Days and Counting.....
* Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu began his final push of the 2020 presidential campaign on October 16 when he took a three-month leave of absence. Though many ridiculed him for taking a "long recess" after being Kaohsiung mayor for less than a year, this might have been the best strategic move he's made since becoming KMT presidential nominee in July.
* At the moment, Han trails the DPP incumbent, President Tsai Ing-wen, anywhere from 10-13% in public opinion polls. Though sizeable, it is NOT an insurmountable lead. Besides, stranger things have happened before in Taiwan's young democracy.
* Momentum remains the key. Who's able to dictate campaign tempo through issues and/or vision will decide the outcome on January 11, 2020. Irrespective of who wins, changes--from cross-Strait relations to government operations--are inevitable in post-election Taiwan.
* At the moment, Han trails the DPP incumbent, President Tsai Ing-wen, anywhere from 10-13% in public opinion polls. Though sizeable, it is NOT an insurmountable lead. Besides, stranger things have happened before in Taiwan's young democracy.
* Momentum remains the key. Who's able to dictate campaign tempo through issues and/or vision will decide the outcome on January 11, 2020. Irrespective of who wins, changes--from cross-Strait relations to government operations--are inevitable in post-election Taiwan.
Thursday, October 3, 2019
About ETRC Group
The ETRC Group 誠豐研究暨諮詢中心
業務服務範圍
l 從地緣政治的觀察，每週提供國際、亞太地區、及台海兩岸的最新發展與分析，協助企業決策者永續經營與規劃未來發展。
l 依據貴公司營運性質，持續觀察相關產業進展及經營環境，並適時提出分析與建議，避免非經濟因素干擾，俾利持續經營與發展。
l 經由視訊或會議安排，每週就前述報告進行討論，分析相關問題，並就客戶需求，展望相關事件可能的演變。
l 按照客戶需求，不定期對企業員工及中高階主管進行授課，進一步瞭解地緣政治發展對企業經營環境的影響。
l 收費方式請洽：+886227077176;
+886932186028
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