Thursday, October 24, 2019

Looking Presidential

* Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu has been an atypical politician in more ways than one. He began his political career early in the 1980s, elected to both local legislature and the Legislative Yuan (LY). However, after losing his bid to become an at-large LY member of the KMT in 2001, he was out of politics for 17 years before resurfacing in 201. His landslide victory in last year's Kaohsiung mayoral election was nothing short of a miracle, winning over 63% of the popular votes in a city long considered a stronghold for the DPP.

* Han might not have considered a presidential bid during the beginning months in office, but the political storm (called 韓流 in Chinese) he brought on made his absence from the KMT primary impossible. He was widely regarded as the best hope for the KMT-led pan-Blue camp to recapture the presidency in 2020. However, since his nomination as KMT's presidential candidate, many have seen him struggle to hold onto his support, especially among those considered the economics-oriented, better-educated groups.

* Among Han's strategic missteps, the most serious one concerns his decision to seek a presidential bid after only being in office for a few months. No amount of justification seemed able to bail him out of this one. Next, he has repeatedly remarked on things that he either didn't know enough, or simply just shoots from the hip, overlooking the potential ripple effects from those statements. When this type of behaviour happens with some regularity, Han has become not just controversial, but a controversy in himself.

* As stated in the ETRC blog before, Tsai Ing-wen's sizeable lead over Han is formidable, but not impossible to overcome. But Han and his campaign team have to start somewhere and sometime soon since there's only 79 days left. Start looking and acting presidential would be a preferred first step.

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