* According the latest polls, KMT presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu still trails President Tsai Ing-wen, anywhere from 12-18%. The lead is not insignificant and has been steadily increasing since August. Theoretically it is not impossible for Han to catch up in the remaining 81 days, but a lot of things have to go right in order for that to happen.
* Though the pre-announcement expectations were high, Han's mainland policy has turned out to be largely a political dud. Besides inheriting the core of the national security team from the Ma Ying-jeou administration of 2008-2016, Han's cross-Strait policy looks to continue Ma's position foundation on the 1992 consensus--something that has become controversial within Taiwan and may not be enough to rejuvenate cross-Strait ties, if Han wins, after the January 11 vote.
* Everyone loves a winner. If Han continues to lag behind Tsai in public opinion polls, the impression that he's not "electable" will become harder to get rid of. Hence, the likelihood of winning will play a crucial role in an emotion-laden campaign for the top political job in Taiwan.
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