* 在媒體專訪中， 高雄市長韓國瑜拋出「當選總統，高雄上班」的議題，引起各界討論。不分黨派，南部縣市首長及民眾普遍表示歡迎，凸顯台灣南部長期被忽略的鬱悶與不滿。但其他地區的政治人物與民眾紛紛表示反對，甚至提出應該到中部、東部等不同地區上班，以期達到「公平與平衡」，頓時間可真是「一人一把哨，各吹各的調」。
* 韓國瑜提出高雄上班的想法，當然有他的戰略考量，主要還是希望避開「落跑市長」的包袱、甚至罵名，表示他繼續留在高雄。但還是常讓人感覺似乎嘴巴講得太多、太快、太滿，做為地方首長有時可以天馬行空，丟一些風向球、看看大家的反應如何。但一個要參與明年大選的人，還是宜謹言慎行，沒有共識的議題，搶新聞標題無可厚非，但做國家領導人反而會引起反感，更何況在迪士尼、探勘石油、辦賽馬等議題還備受質疑時，應該避免給反對人士更多攻擊自己的材料。
* 更何況現在的管理學，強調的是「行動管理」，除了醫生、律師、會計師等傳統的白領工作，誰會在乎辦公室在哪裡？國家領導人在哪裡，國政重心就在哪裡。企業領袖都知道這樣的道理，想當總統的人不可以不知道，而自身的思維、行為更不應該停留在過去。
* 遷都高雄不是不可能，但普遍認為牽扯太廣、爭議太多，短期內台灣內部不易有共識。下一個當選總統的人應該先做到「兩岸和平、台灣安全：打拚經濟，人民有錢」，其他的就當作選舉的噪音與候選人的造勢花招吧！
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Monday, May 13, 2019
Where is the beef?
* As presidential primaries heat up, prospective candidates have stepped up attacks of rivals. From whether nomination opinion polls should include mobil numbers to the necessity of free trade zones, differences between presidential hopefuls have, unfortunately, mostly followed partisan lines, not substantively.
* At the same time, there is no indication that an intra-party compromise appears likely since no one is willing to compromise. With the window of cooperation closing fast, post-primary party unity looms large for both major parties when the presidential campaign kicks off in early fall.
* It essentially comes down to a two-person race in each of the two major parties--the ruling DPP and the KMT. For the DPP, President Tsai Ing-wen and former Premier William Ching-teh Lai remain in a tight race, with Lai's once double-digit lead shrinking fast. The postponement of the primary deadline to end of May may give Tsai a bit more breathing room, and that may just be enough.
* As for the KMT, the nomination will be decided between Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Foxconn Chairperson Terry Gou. While Han continues to lead over Gou, the momentum seems to be shifting behind the richest man in Taiwan. The bigger challenge for the KMT is not getting one of them nominated, but how to forge party unity once the primary is over. Judging from its history, that has never been easy, and there is no indication this year's race will be any different.
* At the same time, there is no indication that an intra-party compromise appears likely since no one is willing to compromise. With the window of cooperation closing fast, post-primary party unity looms large for both major parties when the presidential campaign kicks off in early fall.
* It essentially comes down to a two-person race in each of the two major parties--the ruling DPP and the KMT. For the DPP, President Tsai Ing-wen and former Premier William Ching-teh Lai remain in a tight race, with Lai's once double-digit lead shrinking fast. The postponement of the primary deadline to end of May may give Tsai a bit more breathing room, and that may just be enough.
* As for the KMT, the nomination will be decided between Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Foxconn Chairperson Terry Gou. While Han continues to lead over Gou, the momentum seems to be shifting behind the richest man in Taiwan. The bigger challenge for the KMT is not getting one of them nominated, but how to forge party unity once the primary is over. Judging from its history, that has never been easy, and there is no indication this year's race will be any different.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
沈不住氣了？
* 針對高雄市長韓國瑜在4/23發表的五點聲明，台北市長柯文哲說韓國瑜沈不住氣了，不適合現在就對2020大選表態。柯文哲的觀點見仁見智，但聲明確實呈現一個懷著怨懟、想要又怕受傷害的地方首長，對於未來充滿不確定感，但也不願停滯在港都的矛盾心態。
* 4/23前韓國瑜從來沒有對2020有過清楚的表態，「現階段」、「截至目前為止」等強烈自我保護的但書與前提，讓他能主導國民黨提名的機制，包括時程與規劃細節，種種作為皆為了營造出「非我不可、捨我其誰」的氛圍。
* 四月份的美國行，當地政界與學界的反應、以及僑胞們的熱烈簇擁，讓任何人都會感覺飄飄然，甚至不可一世。其實這樣的媒體操作也無可厚非，把外界的期望值擴張到極大，最後再用慷慨激昂、淺顯易懂的詞語，順勢推舟，以絕對的正當性，獲得提名門票，參加2020大選。
* 4/23的聲明裡，非但沒有清楚地表態，更對國民黨中央開轟，指控黨高層「密室協商」，離人民越來越遠。對於一個想要參選大位的人，應該落實「廣結善緣、以和為貴」，不是像個自走砲，先來個網內互打，千錯萬錯都是別人的錯，突顯自己「忍辱負重、為黨為國」。
* 韓國瑜的高人氣，當然應該被納入初選民調內。但在對自己人開砲之前，是否也應該想想：競選政見落實了多少？對市民的承諾怎麼辦？更重要的是，高雄市長補選怎麼辦？還沒有在這些問題上，提出些具體、富建設性解決方法之前，就只會「吃碗內、看碗外」，國民黨還能團結打選戰嗎？還是永遠都是「一團心結」？
* 4/23前韓國瑜從來沒有對2020有過清楚的表態，「現階段」、「截至目前為止」等強烈自我保護的但書與前提，讓他能主導國民黨提名的機制，包括時程與規劃細節，種種作為皆為了營造出「非我不可、捨我其誰」的氛圍。
* 四月份的美國行，當地政界與學界的反應、以及僑胞們的熱烈簇擁，讓任何人都會感覺飄飄然，甚至不可一世。其實這樣的媒體操作也無可厚非，把外界的期望值擴張到極大，最後再用慷慨激昂、淺顯易懂的詞語，順勢推舟，以絕對的正當性，獲得提名門票，參加2020大選。
* 4/23的聲明裡，非但沒有清楚地表態，更對國民黨中央開轟，指控黨高層「密室協商」，離人民越來越遠。對於一個想要參選大位的人，應該落實「廣結善緣、以和為貴」，不是像個自走砲，先來個網內互打，千錯萬錯都是別人的錯，突顯自己「忍辱負重、為黨為國」。
* 韓國瑜的高人氣，當然應該被納入初選民調內。但在對自己人開砲之前，是否也應該想想：競選政見落實了多少？對市民的承諾怎麼辦？更重要的是，高雄市長補選怎麼辦？還沒有在這些問題上，提出些具體、富建設性解決方法之前，就只會「吃碗內、看碗外」，國民黨還能團結打選戰嗎？還是永遠都是「一團心結」？
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
郭董的參選
四月初在美國參加會議期間，曾論及鴻海董事長郭台銘可能參選2020總統大選。好奇之外，與會代表更有興趣進一步了解郭董在兩岸及其他重要政策的看法，也希望如果獲得提名後，郭董能夠親訪華府，向政學界說明「牛肉在哪裡」。
除了使命感，郭董投入2020總統大選更需要勇氣，但不是外界普遍猜測的政治與企業的角色衝突或鴻海接班的問題，而是在國際地緣政治迅速變遷、兩岸關係持續低迷之際，郭董為什麼有信心他能做得比其他的人好？而他又能為台灣帶來什麼改變？
郭董來自企業界，了解台灣經濟的困難與挑戰。但領導國家與經營企業不同，不能僅考量股東最大的利益，更要評估機會與風險，往往取捨容易、平衡難行。2014的太陽花學運凸顯了國人對過度依賴單一市場的疑慮，而郭董也說「市場靠競爭」，但台灣在國際市場兢爭的優勢（niche）是人才、還是技術？如果不開放，好人才留不住、新人才進不來，不僅影響技術研發，更衝擊整體競爭力，想選總統的不可能不知其間的連動性。
但經濟發展不是總統大選的唯一議題，在政黨喊出「中華民國保衛戰」之際，國家定位與兩岸關係勢必牽動選民情緒、引導選戰節奏。雖然絕大部分的台灣民眾希望維持現狀，但選戰難免標籤亂飛，壓縮了理性辯論的空間。在「不願統、不能獨」的環境限制下，其實台灣需要的是一個真正能管理（manage）兩岸及美中台關係的領導人，而不是一個最終統獨的倡議者。
台灣出一個鴻海不簡單，而郭董願意投入2020的總統大選更不容易，就像歐巴馬2008參選時提出「改變」（change）的呼籲，郭董的高支持度代表了民心思變、民心望治。民眾更期待新的總統能夠降低台海的劍拔弩張、幫助台灣脫離在兩岸及經濟上的原地打轉。在明年一月投票前，或許台灣民眾應該問問自己：為了這國家，要把票投給誰？
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Ready, set, go!
* With both President Tsai Ing-wen and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu returning today from overseas trips, the presidential primaries for both the DPP and the KMT are about to move up a notch, indications are that neither major party has a clear favourite, with the elections just nine months away.
* There doesn't appear to be much room for intra-party reconciliation between Tsai and former Premier William Chin-teh Lai. To launch his primary bid, Lai just came out with a tell-all book that detailed his differences with Tsai over issues ranging from independence to pardoning former President Chen Shui-bian.
* With Lai currently leading Tsai in various polls, the contest will be a hard-fought battle for both. Since recent efforts by party seniors at bridging the two sides have proved to be futile, most expect the primary to run its course and produce a DPP nominee by mid-April.
* The KMT, on the other hand, has its hands full with a field of five hopefuls (three already declared, two are undecided). Though he has made his intentions clear, Han Kuo-yu remains the clear favourite in the polls and among the rank-and-file. Han does not have a justification for running because he's been Kaohsiung mayor for just four months.
* If he runs and gets the nomination, Han will be under tremendous pressure, mostly from the city council and the DPP, to resign. When, and if, that happens, the DPP would likely exploit the opportunity and regain the mayoral seat it has held for over two decades in the subsequent by-election. All things considered, it would not be an easy decision for either Han to the KMT.
* As the weather turns warmer, Taiwan's domestic political scene is about to get a lot hotter. Barring something unforeseen, the DPP will have a presidential nominee by mid-April, but the KMT could take months, until it holds the next party congress in July to confirm the nominee.
* There doesn't appear to be much room for intra-party reconciliation between Tsai and former Premier William Chin-teh Lai. To launch his primary bid, Lai just came out with a tell-all book that detailed his differences with Tsai over issues ranging from independence to pardoning former President Chen Shui-bian.
* With Lai currently leading Tsai in various polls, the contest will be a hard-fought battle for both. Since recent efforts by party seniors at bridging the two sides have proved to be futile, most expect the primary to run its course and produce a DPP nominee by mid-April.
* The KMT, on the other hand, has its hands full with a field of five hopefuls (three already declared, two are undecided). Though he has made his intentions clear, Han Kuo-yu remains the clear favourite in the polls and among the rank-and-file. Han does not have a justification for running because he's been Kaohsiung mayor for just four months.
* If he runs and gets the nomination, Han will be under tremendous pressure, mostly from the city council and the DPP, to resign. When, and if, that happens, the DPP would likely exploit the opportunity and regain the mayoral seat it has held for over two decades in the subsequent by-election. All things considered, it would not be an easy decision for either Han to the KMT.
* As the weather turns warmer, Taiwan's domestic political scene is about to get a lot hotter. Barring something unforeseen, the DPP will have a presidential nominee by mid-April, but the KMT could take months, until it holds the next party congress in July to confirm the nominee.
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