Monday, May 13, 2019

Where is the beef?

* As presidential primaries heat up, prospective candidates have stepped up attacks of rivals. From whether nomination opinion polls should include mobil numbers to the necessity of free trade zones, differences between presidential hopefuls have, unfortunately, mostly followed partisan lines, not substantively.

* At the same time, there is no indication that an intra-party compromise appears likely since no one is willing to compromise. With the window of cooperation closing fast, post-primary party unity looms large for both major parties when the presidential campaign kicks off in early fall.

*  It essentially comes down to a two-person race in each of the two major parties--the ruling DPP and the KMT. For the DPP, President Tsai Ing-wen and former Premier William Ching-teh Lai remain in a tight race, with Lai's once double-digit lead shrinking fast. The postponement of the primary deadline to end of May may give Tsai a bit more breathing room, and that may just be enough.

* As for the KMT, the nomination will be decided between Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and Foxconn Chairperson Terry Gou. While Han continues to lead over Gou, the momentum seems to be shifting behind the richest man in Taiwan. The bigger challenge for the KMT is not getting one of them nominated, but how to forge party unity once the primary is over. Judging from its history, that has never been easy, and there is no indication this year's race will be any different.

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