The Key Minority

* With eight seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan (LY), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has positioned itself as a relevant, sometimes indispensable, player to get anything passed in the next four years. In fact, it is abundantly evident in the upcoming intra-LY election for the speaker and the vice speaker on February 1, 2024.

* Since neither the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) captured an outright majority over the 57-seat threshold, both need to win the support of the TPP in key votes to attain a majority. Therefore, in the speaker election on February 1, the nominees from both the DPP and the KMT had visited the TPP legislative caucus' office in recent days and, in turn, accepted, at least in principle, the reform package proposed by the TPP.

* It is rare for any small party to command the attention, and respect, of the two major parties in Taiwan's young democracy, but in the fifth year of its existence, the TPP has achieved the level of influence and relevance that no one could ignore. Unless it commits a major strategic misstep in the next four years, it is likely that Taiwan's 2028 presidential election will again be a tripartite affair between the DPP, KMT, and TPP. The next mayoral election in November 2026 would be a major test of TPP's grassroots support, in addition to its already formidable presence over the Internet, especially for those 40 and under.

 A Not-So-Minor Minority President?

* DPP's William Lai won the January 13 presidential election with a little more than 40% (40.05% to be exact) of the popular votes. Though the outcome wasn't much of a surprise, Lai's vote total was 17% lower than what Tsai Ing-wen garnered in 2020. Most young voters--those 40 and under--preferred former Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je over Lai, and there is no indication that things will change anytime soon.

* Kuomintang's Hou You-yi, on the other hand, returned to being the mayor of New Taipei City following the disappointing results. Though many factors were responsible for Hou's defeat, his lack of personal charisma and experience on national issues, just to name a few, were clearly flaws that Hou was never able to recover. At the same time, he's doing his best to stave-off a grassroots-initiated recall campaign and avoid suffering the same fate as former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu following the 2020 campaign.

* On the other hand, the KMT became the largest party, at 52 seats, in the Legislative Yuan (LY). With two friendly independent allies, the KMT now effectively wields 54 votes in the 113-seat body. The DPP only retained 51 seats, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) holds a key minority position with 8 seats.

* The new makeup of the LY could hamper the functioning of the incoming DPP administration. The TPP already made it clear that it intends to utilize its eight seats on legislations deemed critical to its survival and relevance. But there has been so much bad blood between the DPP and TPP, it's unlikely the two two can work closely together and consistently. The same can be said between the KMT and the TPP. Therefore, with LY being unpredictable in the next four years, it remains unclear that how much, and how inclusive, the Lai administration can implement policies that it aims to deliver following a hard-fought campaign.

 The Final Fifty-Yard Dash

* After months of intense campaigning, Taiwan's 2024 presidential race comes down to the final ten days. The polls will open from 8am to 4pm on Saturday, January 13, 2024. Barring something unforeseen, the results should be available no later than 8pm.

* Since no opinion poll will be made public in the final ten days, the last available numbers still showed DPP's William Lai has a narrowing lead of 2-4 percent over KMT's Hou You-yi, with Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ke Wen-je a distant third. Since the difference between Lai and Hou is within the margin of error, it's essentially a toss-up between the two dominant parties of DPP and KMT, with the voter turnout rate (anything higher 70% would be considered a boost for Hou) and any last-minute scandal (which has to directly implicate the candidate ) the remaining variables that could potentially upset the outcome.

* The election results will have, of course, far reaching consequences on cross-Strait relations and on US-China ties in the next four years, at least. While no one can predict with any certainty on China-Taiwan relations in the coming years, nobody should underestimate Beijing's resolve to reunify with Taiwan, by force if necessary, should the latter overstepping the "red lines" that Beijing has long deemed provocative, e.g. dejure independence and external interference. That scenario is far more likely if the DPP retains power and pursue measures that, in Beijing's eyes, made peaceful unification impossible.

* The impact on the global economy would be devastating should a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Nobody wants to see that happening, and it's not imminent. It is, however, fair to say that no matter who the victor is on January 13, the room for policy and behavioral interpretation is limited if a foundation of trust is not put in place quickly across the Taiwan Strait. It's not going to be easy, especially after the suspension of dialogue since 2016. The four-month transfer of power period, until May 20, presents a particularly difficult challenge for all parties in the US-China-Taiwan trilateral context. 

A Thing of the Past?

* With the clock ticking, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have yet to reached an agreement on forming a combined ticket for the upcoming presidential election. There is plenty of blame to go around for the impasse. Besides both parties want its nominee to be atop the ticket, lack of trust and incongruence on some major policies, e.g. cross-Strait relations, are the major obstacles holding back the planned union.

* It's widely acknowledged that "politics makes strange bedfellow." There were past attempts at cross-party collaboration, most notably in the 2004 presidential race when KMT's Lien Chan joined forces with People First Party's (PFP) James Soong, which did not lead to a victory but the eventual demise of the PFP.

* Judging from the past, the TPP, of course, has been cautious and measured in the inter-party negotiations during the last few weeks. The KMT, on the other hand, has not moved the needle much with an adamant demand that its nominee, Hou You-yi, must lead the ticket. However, with mounting pressure from the grassroots, the negotiations have intensified in recent days, as the deadline for submitting party nominations to the Central Election Commission (CEC) is November 24.

* There is no indication that the KMT-TPP union is imminent, but if they run separate campaigns, it could be an early, and easy, victory for the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) William Lai. Nobody in either KMT or the TPP would want to bear the responsibility of that outcome, but neither has shown much willingness to meet the other side halfway.

* The next 48 hours will determine if the proposed cross-party collaboration would iron itself out eventually. While party leaders are politically calculating, the 2024 presidential election could pronounce the fate of major parties, and the role each will play, in Taiwan's divisive and highly emotional political landscape, at least until the next presidential race in 2028.    

 On Governance

* Taiwan's presidential election is heating up, with the primary focus on whether the KMT would collaborate with Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and form a combined ticket. While both parties have voiced the intention to collaborate, no concrete progress has been made in the last two weeks. There is no indication that the proposed KMT-TPP collaboration appears imminent, but the end of October is the deadline that would either make, or break, the planned alliance.

* The stalled negotiations can only be interpreted as a result of too much "self-centered political calculation." Each party has its own set of interests and clearly lacks the understanding necessary, and appreciation, of gesture and rhetoric coming from the other party. Without a foundation of trust, the collaboration probably wouldn't work, and even if it did, it likely would not survive the first instance of policy, or operational, disagreement.

* Governance is the measurement of governmental performance for the benefit of the people. Usually it's not the accomplishment of a single person, but a group of competent, committed officials working together as a team. As people often say, "it's no longer the age of one-man show."

* This is something that has been overlooked in the presidential campaign. Voters would examine candidates' qualification, experience, and policy proposal in making their decision, but seldom they would question whether a particular candidate has "a team" to govern effectively and whether this "team" has accomplished enough in the past to warrant another shot at governance. Maybe people can dig a bit deeper, think a bit wider before casting their ballot.