The Final Fifty-Yard Dash

* After months of intense campaigning, Taiwan's 2024 presidential race comes down to the final ten days. The polls will open from 8am to 4pm on Saturday, January 13, 2024. Barring something unforeseen, the results should be available no later than 8pm.

* Since no opinion poll will be made public in the final ten days, the last available numbers still showed DPP's William Lai has a narrowing lead of 2-4 percent over KMT's Hou You-yi, with Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ke Wen-je a distant third. Since the difference between Lai and Hou is within the margin of error, it's essentially a toss-up between the two dominant parties of DPP and KMT, with the voter turnout rate (anything higher 70% would be considered a boost for Hou) and any last-minute scandal (which has to directly implicate the candidate ) the remaining variables that could potentially upset the outcome.

* The election results will have, of course, far reaching consequences on cross-Strait relations and on US-China ties in the next four years, at least. While no one can predict with any certainty on China-Taiwan relations in the coming years, nobody should underestimate Beijing's resolve to reunify with Taiwan, by force if necessary, should the latter overstepping the "red lines" that Beijing has long deemed provocative, e.g. dejure independence and external interference. That scenario is far more likely if the DPP retains power and pursue measures that, in Beijing's eyes, made peaceful unification impossible.

* The impact on the global economy would be devastating should a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Nobody wants to see that happening, and it's not imminent. It is, however, fair to say that no matter who the victor is on January 13, the room for policy and behavioral interpretation is limited if a foundation of trust is not put in place quickly across the Taiwan Strait. It's not going to be easy, especially after the suspension of dialogue since 2016. The four-month transfer of power period, until May 20, presents a particularly difficult challenge for all parties in the US-China-Taiwan trilateral context.