The Key Minority

* With eight seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan (LY), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has positioned itself as a relevant, sometimes indispensable, player to get anything passed in the next four years. In fact, it is abundantly evident in the upcoming intra-LY election for the speaker and the vice speaker on February 1, 2024.

* Since neither the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) captured an outright majority over the 57-seat threshold, both need to win the support of the TPP in key votes to attain a majority. Therefore, in the speaker election on February 1, the nominees from both the DPP and the KMT had visited the TPP legislative caucus' office in recent days and, in turn, accepted, at least in principle, the reform package proposed by the TPP.

* It is rare for any small party to command the attention, and respect, of the two major parties in Taiwan's young democracy, but in the fifth year of its existence, the TPP has achieved the level of influence and relevance that no one could ignore. Unless it commits a major strategic misstep in the next four years, it is likely that Taiwan's 2028 presidential election will again be a tripartite affair between the DPP, KMT, and TPP. The next mayoral election in November 2026 would be a major test of TPP's grassroots support, in addition to its already formidable presence over the Internet, especially for those 40 and under.