團結...還是一團心結?
* 記憶中，台灣民主發展的過程一直是鬧鬨鬨的，高低起伏，永無冷場。從早期的戒嚴時期到在野人士對政治體制的抗爭，幾乎每天都可以看到朝野各政黨的爭吵、攻擊、甚至肢體衝突，在在凸顯民主轉型的初期，各個政治團體對國家定位、社會公義、與競爭規範的差異與堅持。
* 這份堅持的背後隱藏著彼此在意識形態上的鴻溝、根深蒂固的不信任、以及「有我無你」的政治DNA。雖然台灣解除戒嚴已近四十年，政黨間的競爭、甚至鬥爭未曾停歇，過程中加深了社會的對立，壓縮了理性對話的空間，也忘記培養「競爭而不鬥爭」的民主素養。所以政黨及個人只懂得「整碗捧去」，不知道為了公共利益而擱置自我的價值，遑論「團結」對一個新興民主的意義。
* 民主不是只有投票，選舉結果也不是輸贏的唯一標準。但在一個瀰漫「速食主義」的社會裡，有形的數據變成主要的測試工具，而勝選成為目的、更是手段，不再「成功不必在我」，而是「成功一定是我」。雖然瞭解分裂的後果，但永遠在彼此一團心結的糾葛下，不知「團結」為何物、也跳脫不開「勝選一定在我、有我、是我」的迷失。
Time to Scramble...
* The four presidential candidates--William Lai, Ke Wen-je, Hou You-yi, and Terry Gou--begin September with a specific target that each wants to reach. With roughly four months before the January 13 vote, all four want to make sure major handicaps removed and poll positions strengthened.
* As the "first among equals" in opinion polls, Lai cannot afford to be complacent and plans to step up campaign activities around the island. Though Lai currently has a double-digit lead over the closest rival, he is fully aware that the opposition will intensify efforts to form a combined ticket in coming weeks and months. It's not the time to sit on his lead and look too far ahead.
* KMT's Hou You-yi will visit the U.S., including D.C., in mid-September. Not well-known for his position on cross-Strait relations, Hou must convince U.S. policymakers that he will not "lean overwhelmingly" on Beijing, particularly in economic and technological areas. It remains to be seen as how he plans to deliver on that front.
* Similar to Lai, TPP's Ke Wen-je has outlined campaigning activities in the coming weeks, particularly in Central and Southern Taiwan. Ke has been slipping a bit in recent polls, with many unsure about his position on key issues, including cross-Strait relations. He has been advised to elaborate on key policies, but has protracted the process, which has been easily interpreted as an indication that he's not quite ready.
* Finally, Foxconn Founder Terry Gou has to put all of his efforts in the write-in, petition drive, which starts on September 19. The process is only 45 days to reach, at least, 290,000 copies. Though Gou's camp sounds optimistic, it's not an easy target to accomplish. If he's not able to generate that many, Gou won't be on the ballot as a write-in candidate. Moreover, if he's not able to submit substantially more copies than 290,000, say a cool million, he won't be able to generate adequate momentum going into the final campaign stretch.
Twin-City Forum Resumes
* First started in 2010, the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum returns August 30-31, 2023. It was staged as a platform where the two cities could explore ways to broaden areas of collaboration and deepen bilateral relationship. Since the Forum is confined to Taipei and Shanghai, it was designed to supplement cross-Strait relations, in good or bad times.
* While substantive results were limited in the last 13 years, the mechanism has become an indicator of the state of cross-Strait relations, as well as a model of local-level exchanges for both sides. With the election of KMT's Wayne Chiang, who is also Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's great grand son, as Taipei mayor last November, it is no surprise to see the resumption of the Twin-City Forum this week.
* Chiang's visit to Shanghai will be a time for the CPC to get a closer look and understand the 4th-generation Chiang a little better. Though he's been on the job for less than a year, the younger Chiang has been cautious and low-key, while staying away from controversial issues. However, since two former Taipei mayors--Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou--have gone on to become ROC president, many expect Chiang to stay politically relevant by NOT committing any major policy missteps. If he does play his cards right, a presidential run in 2032, when Chiang is just 54, should not be ruled out.
Terry Gou Made it Official...
* Foxconn Founder Terry Gou called a news conference on August 28 and declared his candidacy for president. Though he has been at the bottom of most opinion polls in recent months in a possible four-way race, he appeared unfazed and believed his "numbers will climb upward" after today's official announcement.
* Gou's decision to join the race was not a surprise. His aspiration to contest the top political office on the island is no secret. Though his first crack at the presidency was not successful in 2020, he has remained active in the public domain since, most notably the purchase of five million doses of BNT's anti-corona virus vaccine at the peak of the pandemic in 2021. Many thought he had given up on pursuing the presidency and would just remain a philanthropist on social and biotech issues, but Gou's political ambition "resurfaced" last April when he took part in the opposition KMT's nomination process. Yet again, he came up short and lost the nomination to New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi.
* Now Gou's needs to undertake a signed-petition drive and must exceed 290,000 copies, which is 1.5% of the total electorate in the last presidential election, to put his name on the ballot. Despite Gou's optimistic beat at the news conference, it is a formidable challenge, particularly for someone that lacks grassroots organization to coordinate and reach that goal. Besides, a prospective candidate only has 45 days--from September 19 to November 2--to get the job done. In this day and age where a premium is placed on personal data protection, it's going to be tight.
* Some believe Gou is pursuing a strategy of "stop me, if you dare." He doesn't expect the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) to take him seriously unless he has made significant progress toward becoming a candidate. Launching his candidacy today and making a split in the pan-Blue (KMT) camp a looming reality will achieve that objective. However, Gou would not want to risk shouldering the responsibility of breaking apart the opposition alliance, but he wants a seat at the table and be treated as equal.
* It would be premature for the DPP's William Lai to declare victory following Gou's announcement today, though that prospect is getting brighter. In a four-way race with Gou in it, Lai is expected to win a landslide. Everyone knows it's simple mathematics. Only the leaders of the opposition seemingly don't get it since everyone just sits and waits for someone else to make a mistake, either strategic or substantive. But the clock is ticking.....
