Monday, September 18, 2023

 The Next Phase Begins...

* Terry Gou and his running mate, Ms. Lai Pei Hsia, officially qualified to become write-in candidates for the presidential election next January. Starting on September 19, they'll have 45 days to gather nearly 290,000 signatures, along with photocopies of national identification card from each. Though the task has been accomplished by others before, it's not going to be a walk in the park. The Central Election Commission (CEC) will then review the submitted write-in petitions and make the final results known on November 14, 2023, before the field is finalized.

* Despite repeated pledges to stay in the race until the end, questions persist if Terry Gou would risk breaking the opposition camp apart and hand an easy victory to DPP's William Lai. It's unclear if the opposition camp can come together to form a combined ticket, most likely after KMT's Hou You-yi comes back next week from his current trip to the US. However, if there's little room for maneuvering as everyone insists on heading the ticket, prospects are bleak for any efforts at unifying the opposition. It is a simple concept that seems to have gone out of fashion within the opposition.

* With less than 100 days left in the campaign, the ruling DPP and Lai appear headed toward a not-too-difficult victory. In the coming weeks, opposition will likely expose alleged scandals of the ruling party. However, unless the accusation is substantiated AND is directly connected to Lai himself, overcoming a 10- to 15-point deficit in the opinion polls seems a bridge too far for the KMT, the TPP, and Terry Gou.

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