Where Do They Go From Here?

* Hou You-yi has just returned from his US trip. Ke Wen-je continues to travel around the island despite consecutive declines in recent polls. Terry Gou has launched the write-in campaign. The three candidates from the opposition appear headed in different directions, each preparing to run an independent race until next January.

* Though everyone knows without forming a combined ticket, none of them could compete individually and expect to win against DPP's William Lai. Despite heightened anxiety from the grassroots, none is taking concrete steps toward that goal.

* While the election is still 100-plus days away, each is preparing for the worse and hoping some "miraculous development" would lead them to the Promised Land. There is no indication that is imminent, or even likely.

* The most likely scenario is for the three of them to form two tickets in, the latest, November, with a "Ke-Gou" partnership most likely. Though the KMT welcomes a "Hou-Ke" union, it would mark the end of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) which Ke founded four years ago. Besides, Ke needs to go no further than reviewing the recent history of the People First Party's (PFP) often-rumored, but never realized, merger with the KMT. 

* Since Hou WILL NOT accept a VP role because the KMT "has 14 city mayors and county magistrates, along with 35 seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY)," the grand old party will not accept anything less than atop the ticket. Since Ke needs to make himself a more formidable candidate, joining forces with Gou wouldn't be a bad tactical move. However, whether Gou would accept the second spot on the ticket remains to be seen.

 The Next Phase Begins...

* Terry Gou and his running mate, Ms. Lai Pei Hsia, officially qualified to become write-in candidates for the presidential election next January. Starting on September 19, they'll have 45 days to gather nearly 290,000 signatures, along with photocopies of national identification card from each. Though the task has been accomplished by others before, it's not going to be a walk in the park. The Central Election Commission (CEC) will then review the submitted write-in petitions and make the final results known on November 14, 2023, before the field is finalized.

* Despite repeated pledges to stay in the race until the end, questions persist if Terry Gou would risk breaking the opposition camp apart and hand an easy victory to DPP's William Lai. It's unclear if the opposition camp can come together to form a combined ticket, most likely after KMT's Hou You-yi comes back next week from his current trip to the US. However, if there's little room for maneuvering as everyone insists on heading the ticket, prospects are bleak for any efforts at unifying the opposition. It is a simple concept that seems to have gone out of fashion within the opposition.

* With less than 100 days left in the campaign, the ruling DPP and Lai appear headed toward a not-too-difficult victory. In the coming weeks, opposition will likely expose alleged scandals of the ruling party. However, unless the accusation is substantiated AND is directly connected to Lai himself, overcoming a 10- to 15-point deficit in the opinion polls seems a bridge too far for the KMT, the TPP, and Terry Gou.

 團結...還是一團心結?

* 記憶中，台灣民主發展的過程一直是鬧鬨鬨的，高低起伏，永無冷場。從早期的戒嚴時期到在野人士對政治體制的抗爭，幾乎每天都可以看到朝野各政黨的爭吵、攻擊、甚至肢體衝突，在在凸顯民主轉型的初期，各個政治團體對國家定位、社會公義、與競爭規範的差異與堅持。

* 這份堅持的背後隱藏著彼此在意識形態上的鴻溝、根深蒂固的不信任、以及「有我無你」的政治DNA。雖然台灣解除戒嚴已近四十年，政黨間的競爭、甚至鬥爭未曾停歇，過程中加深了社會的對立，壓縮了理性對話的空間，也忘記培養「競爭而不鬥爭」的民主素養。所以政黨及個人只懂得「整碗捧去」，不知道為了公共利益而擱置自我的價值，遑論「團結」對一個新興民主的意義。

* 民主不是只有投票，選舉結果也不是輸贏的唯一標準。但在一個瀰漫「速食主義」的社會裡，有形的數據變成主要的測試工具，而勝選成為目的、更是手段，不再「成功不必在我」，而是「成功一定是我」。雖然瞭解分裂的後果，但永遠在彼此一團心結的糾葛下，不知「團結」為何物、也跳脫不開「勝選一定在我、有我、是我」的迷失。

 Time to Scramble...

* The four presidential candidates--William Lai, Ke Wen-je, Hou You-yi, and Terry Gou--begin September with a specific target that each wants to reach. With roughly four months before the January 13 vote, all four want to make sure major handicaps removed and poll positions strengthened.

* As the "first among equals" in opinion polls, Lai cannot afford to be complacent and plans to step up campaign activities around the island. Though Lai currently has a double-digit lead over the closest rival, he is fully aware that the opposition will intensify efforts to form a combined ticket in coming weeks and months. It's not the time to sit on his lead and look too far ahead.

*  KMT's Hou You-yi will visit the U.S., including D.C., in mid-September. Not well-known for his position on cross-Strait relations, Hou must convince U.S. policymakers that he will not "lean overwhelmingly" on Beijing, particularly in economic and technological areas. It remains to be seen as how he plans to deliver on that front.

* Similar to Lai, TPP's Ke Wen-je has outlined campaigning activities in the coming weeks, particularly in Central and Southern Taiwan. Ke has been slipping a bit in recent polls, with many unsure about his position on key issues, including cross-Strait relations. He has been advised to elaborate on key policies, but has protracted the process, which has been easily interpreted as an indication that he's not quite ready.

* Finally, Foxconn Founder Terry Gou has to put all of his efforts in the write-in, petition drive, which starts on September 19. The process is only 45 days to reach, at least, 290,000 copies. Though Gou's camp sounds optimistic, it's not an easy target to accomplish. If he's not able to generate that many, Gou won't be on the ballot as a write-in candidate. Moreover, if he's not able to submit substantially more copies than 290,000, say a cool million, he won't be able to generate adequate momentum going into the final campaign stretch.