Will an Anti-DPP Coalition be formed?

* Though the 2024 presidential election is still five-plus months away, the list of contenders remains in a state of flux. Other than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) nominee, William Lai, the opposition camp--including the Kuomintang (KMT), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and Foxconn founder Terry Gou--remains divided and far from forming a united ticket to compete against the DPP. As such, most polls believe, if the election were held today, Lai will handily win the race with approximately 38-40% of the popular vote.

* The opposition camp knows the math well, and neither the KMT nor the TPP stands a chance at winning all the marbles. Though efforts have intensified behind the scene, progress has been limited to sporadic photo-ops. This has made the rank-and-file very antsy and allegiance divided. The KMT plans to hold its plenary session on July 23 to make Hou You-yi's nomination official. The remaining challenge is to: (1) whether Gou would return to the KMT after an unsuccessful nomination bid, and (2) whether an unified ticket is possible with TPP's Ko Wen-je?

* Unity has always been a lofty goal for the KMT, beginning with the division between Lian Chan and James Soong in the 2000 presidential election. In a fundamental sense, unity has been the Achilles' Heel for the KMT for many decades. Things are not particularly promising in this election cycle.

* The attention then turns to former Taipei Mayor Ke, specifically whether he would stay in the race until the end. Ke has positioned himself comfortably at the second place in recent polls, with a sizable lead over others for those 40 and under. It's hard to imagine that Ke's poll number would fluctuate much, but the lead he currently enjoys over Ho could narrow. If, and when, that happens, the KMT may be in a better position to negotiate with the TPP on forging an alliance, or forming a combined ticket. The race to gain an outright majority would be another area of give-and-take. Though trained as a physician, Ke has become a shrewd politician after serving as Taipei mayor for eight years. He will make the deal when he gains a solid footing in the domestic political landscape and senses the upside far outweighs the negatives.       

 What Would Gou Do Next?

* The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) will hold a party plenary meeting on Saturday, July 18, at which time it will make the nomination of New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi for president official. Though the session is just days away, many moving parts are still in play that would make Hou's expected nomination uncertain, unpredictable, and uncomfortable, at least for some.

* The biggest question centers around the true intentions of Foxconn founder Terry Gou and his next step. While some still grabbing onto the slim chance that the KMT would change its presidential nominee, like it did in 2016, and go with someone like Gou instead. In addition, the party is clearly divided between those supporting Hou and those supporting Gou. There is no indication that the intra-party healing is imminent, or set to begin soon after July 18.

* Unity has always been a big problem with the KMT. Though reasons are many, most of which have centered on the party's practice of doing things in "the black box." The lack of transparency creates resentment and raises doubts about fairness. For a party deeply rooted in fifty years of monopoly on power, it is a hard habit to break as the privileged few continue to manipulate relations among the contending factions and personalities.

* We don't anticipate a last-minute change of the KMT presidential nominee, and we also believe the KMT will fare poorly at the polls next January 13. In all likelihood, Gou WILL NOT rejoin the KMT. In fact, he's been planning an islandwide signature drive to meet the thresholds necessary as a write-in, independent candidate. It will be a long and arduous process and a severe test of the collective will behind Gou's presidential ambition. We'll find out in the next few months.