And the nominee is...

* The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) is set to nominate New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi this afternoon (May 17). Ever since his reelection victory last November, Hou has been widely regarded as the likely KMT nominee for the 2024 presidential race. With a 30-plus-year career in law enforcement, Hou is a conservative, cautious politician who lacks the charisma and national policy experiences needed to win a tight national contest. Though he has consistently received high approval ratings as mayor, he needs to make up ground on foreign and cross-Strait relations--areas completely foreign to him as a local administrator.

* There are two things that the KMT HQ needs to do following the nomination: (1) transparency: make the process leading up to Hou's nomination as transparent as possible, so there are no grudges for all those participated in the undertaking, and (2) damage repair: though this time the KMT bypassed primary and went directly to draft the person "most likely to succeed" in next January's general election, divisions were caused that could make unity a difficult goal to reach. If the party stays fragmented, it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, to win the presidency. Everyone knows that, but getting it done is a different story.

* There are options available for Foxconn's Terry Gou following the disappointing outcome: (1) He can consider joining the ticket and teaming up with Hou to be the No.2. As a successful tech tycoon, however, Gou did not participate in the process to be No.2. Though it would be a winning formula, it's likely to be a "bridge too far."

(2) He can stay within the KMT and be a key campaign contributor to Hou. In the meantime, the KMT can entice him with, for instance, being the next premier, or a legislative at-large seat and a potential shot at being the speaker of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY), similar to the Speaker of the House in the U.S.

(3) He can work out an arrangement with Ke Wen-je, former Taipei mayor, of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and possibly form a joint ticket for the 2024 race. Gou and Ke are friends, but unsure if their personalities would mesh well since both want to be the boss calling the shots. This is also a risky move for Gou politically. His credibility could be under attack since this would significantly undermine the KMT's chances to reclaim power and go against his earlier pledge that he would wholeheartedly support the eventual KMT nominee, even if that's not him.