2024 Presidential Campaign Issues

*  The nominees are set. Taiwan's 2024 presidential and legislative elections will dominate news headlines in the next seven months. The race will be tight and the competition is fierce. No matter who wins, the margin of victory will be small.

* The following is a list of likely campaign issues that will determine the next Taiwan president:

(1) Cross-Strait relations: first and foremost, people are concerned how the next president will manage this critical relationship deemed to the island's continued growth and development. Parties differ greatly over, for instance, how to treat the 1992 consensus, which Beijing thinks it's a precondition to the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has traditionally accepted the highly controversial concept, and it has subsequently been the target of criticism for being a "China sympathizer." It remains to be seen as to how the nominee--Hou Yu-yi--would handle this thorny issue without alienating the rank-and-file.

(2) The economy: Taiwan has suffered export declines in recent months, casting a shadow over the outlook of the island's post-COVID recovery. Unemployment and those furloughed, though steady around 5%, could spike if the export engines cools further.

(3) War and peace: this is expected to be the centerpiece of KMT's campaign theme, implying the election of William Lai will likely push Taiwan to the brink of war since the incumbent vice president once said he was a "pragmatic pro-independence practitioner." Lai has moderated his position since, but it's unlikely he would abandon his ideological stance during the campaign.