Monday, January 13, 2020

The Week After

* The presidential and legislative elections are over in Taiwan, with President Tsai Ing-wen winning a landslide reelection and the ruling DPP retaining the majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY). Though many believed a Tsai victory was probable, most were surprised by the margin of victory, over 2.5 million votes, and the KMT's poor performance in legislative races.

* Calls for reform and leadership change within the KMT surfaced the day after the election. Chairman We Den-yih plans to submit his resignation to the Central Standing Committee on 1/15, and a new chair will be elected within three months. Among those interested in becoming the next KMT head, the challenges ahead are formidable, beginning with its China policy and the ability to attract younger voters in the future.

* Another four years with Tsai and a DPP administration are undoubtedly bad news to Beijing. However, it has no one to blame but itself. Besides what happened in HK since June 2019, the election outcome was a resounding rejection of the "one country, two systems" formula in Taiwan. In addition, the election results showed Beijing's policy toward Taiwan has been ineffective, to say the least. With little, if any, room for policy alteration in Beijing, there is no indication that relations across the Taiwan Strait will improve anytime soon. Moreover, in the immediate months ahead, the stalemate will likely remain and the already-icy ties may turn frosty.

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