Thursday, October 18, 2018

Taiwan's Mid-Term Elections/Part 2

* Mayors and magistrates around Taiwan and on the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu--altogether 22--are up for reelection on November 24. It is the first islandwide election since President Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took over in May 2016. Many regard the upcoming local contests as a "mid-term election" for the DPP administration.
* Currently the ruling DPP has a clear numerical advantage with 13 seats, while the Kuomintang (KMT) is holding six and the Independents has three. Because of the difficulties in cross-Strait ties, economic sluggishness, particularly in tourism and retail sectors, and the uncertainty shadowing over the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, it does not present a particularly promising outlook for the ruling party.



Political Party
Number of Mayors/Magistrates
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
13
The Kuomintang (KMT)
6
Independents
3
Total up for Reelection
22


* Despite DPP's subpar performance, the opposition KMT does not appear primed to make significant gains, mostly because of the lack of unity and the long-held image as the party reluctant to make changes and reforms. However, the KMT does have some charismatic mayoral candidates this year that may generate the necessary voter interest and momentum to register an overall victory. Most particularly, Kaohsiung's Han Kuo-yu and Hou You-yi of New Taipei City seem to be the "stars" of this islandwide campaign. The KMT is hoping that they can emerge as lead campaigners to assist fellow KMT candidates caught in tighter races.
* Another interest phenomenon is the political "resurrection" of former President Ma Ying-jeou. As one of the most sought-after campaigners within the pan-Blue camp, Ma seems always have a packed schedule with rallies and speeches, particularly on weekends and holidays. This is something unthinkable maybe just a year ago. Some have speculated that Ma may launch another presidential bid in 2020 if the KMT performs well in November. Though Ma has kept mum on the subject, it remains a distinct possibility, especially if the KMT cannot unite behind a single candidate. As such, Ma may be the most plausible alternative for the pan-Blue.  



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