Taiwan's Mid-Term Elections/Part 1

* Taiwan will hold mayoral elections around the island on November 24, 2018. In addition, the Central Election Commission (CEC) will stage islandwide vote on as many as nine referendum proposals. Voters aged 18 and over may get as many as 14 ballots in some places. In terms of both the number and range of issues, it marks another first in Taiwan's young democracy.
* The nine referendum proposals cover a wide range of issues. Some are on the island's sources of energy, while others are related to same-sex marriage and protection under the law. Most of these issues are very divisive in Taiwan, with no clear consensus either way. Weather, hence voter turnout, on November 24 will be a key factor in the fate of these approved proposals.
* Out of the nine approved referendum proposals, the most controversial is the one on whether Taiwan should attend the 2020 Tokyo Olympics under the name "Taiwan," instead of "Chinese Taipei," as agreed to by all sides in the Nagoya Agreement of 19179. The Republic of China (ROC) government on Taiwan subsequently accepted the "Chinese Taipei" designation in 1981. Ever since the 1984 Winter Olympics, Taiwan athletes have been able to attend Olympics and compete in international sporting events under the name "Chinese Taipei."
* Even if the "name-change"referendum proposal gets majority support in November--which is a tall order itself under the current Referendum Law--there is no indication that such a name change from "Chinese Taipei" to "Taiwan" appears imminent or even likely. In fact, the referendum vote may backfire on Taiwan and her athletes amidst deterioating relations across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing will probably interpret the referendum vote as part of the"creeping independence" scheme by the DPP administration. In addition to applying strong pressure to block the name change, Taiwan athletes may lose their right to compete in the Tokyo Olympics if the referendum proposal is deemed contrary to the 1979 Nagoya Agreement.
* Though the ruling DPP has repeatedly stated its neutrality on these referendum proposals. Beijing is not convinced that the independence-minded DPP has not played a role behind the one on name change. Irrespective of the results on November 24, the deepening distrust between Beijing and the DPP would likely frustrate any attempts at post-election reconciliation and make the ongoing cross-Strait standoff the "new normal" across the Taiwan Strait.