The message behind the numbers

* Though the counting continues, US midterm elections concluded on Tuesday. Democratic Party bucked both history and prevailing sentiments suffered minimal losses in the House of Representatives, with the control of the Senate not to be determined until the run-off election in Georgia on December 6.   

* US voters clearly rejected extreme politics mostly identified with Donal Trump. Many of the GOP nominees closely aligned with Trump lost--some poorly--and the much anticipated "Red Wave" did not happen. Though the GOP may capture the control of the House, albeit by a much smaller margin, in the end, the maneuvering room for legislative agenda-setting is much more limited for the next Speaker.

*  Led by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer, the rise of younger political leaders in both major parties have opened the door for a 2024 presidential showdown where both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are no longer in the lead. There are a lot of variables before the dust settles for the 2024 election, and no one should rule out an encore performance by Biden and Trump when the nomination processes are concluded in the summer of 2024. 

 What Happened to Peace-Building?

* 2022 has been a turbulent year. Though the world is slowly returning to normal after a three-year bout with COVID-19, geopolitical tensions--from Europe to Asia--have heightened risks of armed conflict few, if any, expected. Looking back, none was prepared for what transpired since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

* With the world clearly divided along ideological lines, countries around the globe are running out of "excuses" not to take a side in the quickly changing geopolitical map. No one, at least not outwardly, wants Cold War 2.0, but few are doing anything to alter the projected course and avert the potentially disastrous outcome.

* Besides the ongoing war in Ukraine, many believe the next possible geopolitical conflict could happen in the Taiwan Strait, especially since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Polosi's highly publicized visit to Taipei in early August. While it was a welcomed gesture of the longstanding friendship between the U.S. and Taiwan, the threat of a military conflict has risen exponentially with China staging military exercises around the island and daily jet incursions in the double digits.

* Given the number of official delegations visiting the island since, the taboo once forbidding visits by foreign officials and dignitaries to the island can no longer hinder the continued internationalization of the Taiwan issue, which has long been regarded by Beijing as a "no-no." With heightened likelihood of an a military conflict, Taiwan has taken steps to beef up its defense and military preparedness, including, but not limited to, the purchase of arms from the US and the extension of military training, not conscription, from the current four months to one, possibly two, year.

* Lost in the shuffle between, among other things, the arms buildup and elevated military alertness on the island is the effort to deescalate tensions through the restoration of long-suspended dialogue. Though the continued peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remains the shared interest of all parties concerned, no one--Washington, Beijing, and Taipei included--is doing anything down that avenue. Besides paying mere lip service, few efforts, if any, are devoted in that endeavor, making the prospects of a cross-Strait armed conflict, once unthinkable, unavoidable in the coming years.

* The attention now turns to the proposed Biden-Xi meeting during the G20 Summit. Even if the anticipated summit does happen, few would expect significant breakthroughs in the US-China relations that first began deteriorating when Trump was in office. So much has happened in this vital relationship that few would expect any noticeable improvement with one single meeting.

A Breakthrough Worth Waiting For

 * News broke early this morning that both FoxConn founder Terry Gou and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) have each signed a sales agreement with Shanghai's Fosun Pharma to purchase ten million does collectively of BNT (Pfizer) vaccines. The vaccines will be donated to Taiwan's public health agencies for distribution.

* Undoubtedly this is a timely boost to not only the DPP administration's ongoing fight to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, but also the public's morale and confidence in Taiwan. Although the island remains under level-three alert until July 26, the outlook appears brighter as the pace of vaccination intensifies in the coming weeks. 

* Though the delivery date is yet to be ascertained, the vaccines will likely be applied first to students--those age 12 and above--as the fall semester is set to begin in September. Once the vaccines have arrived, the rate of vaccination will determine how quickly schools can begin in-person learning, which will be critical in the island's return to per-outbreak normalcy.

* Though uncertainties remain, the apparent success of FoxConn and TSMC has blazed a trail for local governments, as well as other corporate and civic organizations, attempting to secure more vaccines to protect the island's 24 million people. The well-known buddhist organization, the Tzu Chi Foundation, have also entered into agreement with the DPP administration to procure another five million doses of BNT vaccines. Therefore, the island's once vaccine shortage should be well addressed within the next three months.

* How well, and how quickly, the DPP administration can contain the ongoing outbreak will bear directly on the 2022 mayoral elections, and possibly the 2024 presidential race. The ruling DPP might have lost a few battles since the outbreak in mid-May, but it's not preordained for an electoral defeat next year. There is still time for President Tsai and the ruling party to recover, especially since the opposition parties like the Kuomintang (KMT) have not made significant stride in the latest public opinion surveys. 

A Slow Return to Normalcy?

 * Based on CDC's numbers in recent days, the outbreak has seemingly been on the decline. The confirmed COVID-19 cases have remained in the 50-80 range since Monday. These are encouraging signs, and some municipalities have taken steps to gradually relax restrictions on business and commercial activities.

* A few selected night markets have been given the green light to experiment with a "soft" reopening. While masks are still mandatory, the gathering of crowds not larger than 100 seemed to have been relaxed. While many of the street vendors welcome the relaxed measures, others remain cautious and rather wait until the alert level drops to 2 and herd immunity is achieved through vaccination. 

* After the lifting of current level-three restrictions, it will probably take a few more months before commercial activities are back to the pre-outbreak levels. The cumulative impact on the island's economy, however, could be considerable. More importantly, the adverse economic effects may spillover into the next election expected in November 2022. More fiscal stimuli maybe forthcoming.

The Changing Fortunes of Politicians

* The recent COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan, and the subsequent efforts to contain it, have had differing impact on the political fortunes of the major political parties and leading political figures on the island. While the recent opinion-survey results showed a realignment of some likely presidential hopefuls for 2024, there is plenty of time left for their political fortunes to change before the race officially kicks off, most likely in the first quarter of 2023.

*  According to the latest survey results, New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih is the first among equals, followed closely by Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe. In a mild surprise, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai came in third, and, once considered a rising political star in the ruling DPP, Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wentsan had fallen to a disappointing fourth, primarily because of the mismanagement of the most recent outbreak since mid-May.

*  For the major political parties, while the ruling DPP had expectedly slipped in favorable image, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) did not capitalize on the government's subpar performance over COVID-19, however. The biggest gains went to Mayor Ke Wenzhe's Taiwan People's Party (TPP), primarily because of widespread discontent over the intensifying bickering between the DPP and the KMT. Though Ke's management of the outbreak in Taipei leaves much to be desired, he and the TPP were wise politically to stay above the political fray when most were looking for someone to blame.

* The next presidential poll will take place in January 2024, and the domestic political landscape will likely change many times over in the next 30+ months. It is simply too early to predict which party, and which politician, would hold the upper hand at that time. If the DPP regains public trust when, and if, it receives plenty of vaccines and gets the recent outbreak under control in the coming months, political tides could change quickly. Conversely, if the vaccine shortage continues and the outbreak rages on, the opposition KMT and TPP stand to benefit significantly, beginning with the mayoral elections of November 2022.