The Changing Fortunes of Politicians

* The recent COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan, and the subsequent efforts to contain it, have had differing impact on the political fortunes of the major political parties and leading political figures on the island. While the recent opinion-survey results showed a realignment of some likely presidential hopefuls for 2024, there is plenty of time left for their political fortunes to change before the race officially kicks off, most likely in the first quarter of 2023.

*  According to the latest survey results, New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih is the first among equals, followed closely by Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe. In a mild surprise, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai came in third, and, once considered a rising political star in the ruling DPP, Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wentsan had fallen to a disappointing fourth, primarily because of the mismanagement of the most recent outbreak since mid-May.

*  For the major political parties, while the ruling DPP had expectedly slipped in favorable image, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) did not capitalize on the government's subpar performance over COVID-19, however. The biggest gains went to Mayor Ke Wenzhe's Taiwan People's Party (TPP), primarily because of widespread discontent over the intensifying bickering between the DPP and the KMT. Though Ke's management of the outbreak in Taipei leaves much to be desired, he and the TPP were wise politically to stay above the political fray when most were looking for someone to blame.

* The next presidential poll will take place in January 2024, and the domestic political landscape will likely change many times over in the next 30+ months. It is simply too early to predict which party, and which politician, would hold the upper hand at that time. If the DPP regains public trust when, and if, it receives plenty of vaccines and gets the recent outbreak under control in the coming months, political tides could change quickly. Conversely, if the vaccine shortage continues and the outbreak rages on, the opposition KMT and TPP stand to benefit significantly, beginning with the mayoral elections of November 2022.