A Thing of the Past?

* With the clock ticking, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have yet to reached an agreement on forming a combined ticket for the upcoming presidential election. There is plenty of blame to go around for the impasse. Besides both parties want its nominee to be atop the ticket, lack of trust and incongruence on some major policies, e.g. cross-Strait relations, are the major obstacles holding back the planned union.

* It's widely acknowledged that "politics makes strange bedfellow." There were past attempts at cross-party collaboration, most notably in the 2004 presidential race when KMT's Lien Chan joined forces with People First Party's (PFP) James Soong, which did not lead to a victory but the eventual demise of the PFP.

* Judging from the past, the TPP, of course, has been cautious and measured in the inter-party negotiations during the last few weeks. The KMT, on the other hand, has not moved the needle much with an adamant demand that its nominee, Hou You-yi, must lead the ticket. However, with mounting pressure from the grassroots, the negotiations have intensified in recent days, as the deadline for submitting party nominations to the Central Election Commission (CEC) is November 24.

* There is no indication that the KMT-TPP union is imminent, but if they run separate campaigns, it could be an early, and easy, victory for the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) William Lai. Nobody in either KMT or the TPP would want to bear the responsibility of that outcome, but neither has shown much willingness to meet the other side halfway.

* The next 48 hours will determine if the proposed cross-party collaboration would iron itself out eventually. While party leaders are politically calculating, the 2024 presidential election could pronounce the fate of major parties, and the role each will play, in Taiwan's divisive and highly emotional political landscape, at least until the next presidential race in 2028.    

 On Governance

* Taiwan's presidential election is heating up, with the primary focus on whether the KMT would collaborate with Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and form a combined ticket. While both parties have voiced the intention to collaborate, no concrete progress has been made in the last two weeks. There is no indication that the proposed KMT-TPP collaboration appears imminent, but the end of October is the deadline that would either make, or break, the planned alliance.

* The stalled negotiations can only be interpreted as a result of too much "self-centered political calculation." Each party has its own set of interests and clearly lacks the understanding necessary, and appreciation, of gesture and rhetoric coming from the other party. Without a foundation of trust, the collaboration probably wouldn't work, and even if it did, it likely would not survive the first instance of policy, or operational, disagreement.

* Governance is the measurement of governmental performance for the benefit of the people. Usually it's not the accomplishment of a single person, but a group of competent, committed officials working together as a team. As people often say, "it's no longer the age of one-man show."

* This is something that has been overlooked in the presidential campaign. Voters would examine candidates' qualification, experience, and policy proposal in making their decision, but seldom they would question whether a particular candidate has "a team" to govern effectively and whether this "team" has accomplished enough in the past to warrant another shot at governance. Maybe people can dig a bit deeper, think a bit wider before casting their ballot.

政黨的放話文化

＊ 台灣的2024大選，進入倒數100天。除了三不五時公布的民調，現階段最熱門的話題就是「藍白合」---要不要合、怎麼合都是民眾（尤其是泛藍的選民）關心的事。但輿論談了幾個月，「只見樓梯響，不見人下來」，政黨各懷鬼胎、別有用心，數個月來進展有限，目標仍是遙不可及。

＊ 國民黨民眾黨雖同為在野，但彼此的理念、政策上不盡相同，在「下架民進黨」為最高戰略目標的驅使下，有來自基層的壓力希望藍白1+1能夠大於2，各自政黨的「高層人士」近日更頻頻放話，批評對方基層實力不足、各級民代名額有限、以及自己的提名人不可能居副位等，讓彼此互信全無，加深整合的困難。

＊ 曾在稍早的評論裡，提及「藍白合」的困難，以及對未來「非綠陣營」整合的悲觀。相關的看法至今未見改變，也因為「民主」是舶來品，政黨與政客只知道「整碗捧去」，而不懂得包容妥協的可貴，也就是「合併好談、合作免談」。 在未來百日內，如果藍白政黨繼續堅持「老大心態」，強調「有我沒你」，那「藍白合」將是天邊遙不可及的彩虹，最終的獲利者依然是現在的執政黨。

 Where Do They Go From Here?

* Hou You-yi has just returned from his US trip. Ke Wen-je continues to travel around the island despite consecutive declines in recent polls. Terry Gou has launched the write-in campaign. The three candidates from the opposition appear headed in different directions, each preparing to run an independent race until next January.

* Though everyone knows without forming a combined ticket, none of them could compete individually and expect to win against DPP's William Lai. Despite heightened anxiety from the grassroots, none is taking concrete steps toward that goal.

* While the election is still 100-plus days away, each is preparing for the worse and hoping some "miraculous development" would lead them to the Promised Land. There is no indication that is imminent, or even likely.

* The most likely scenario is for the three of them to form two tickets in, the latest, November, with a "Ke-Gou" partnership most likely. Though the KMT welcomes a "Hou-Ke" union, it would mark the end of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) which Ke founded four years ago. Besides, Ke needs to go no further than reviewing the recent history of the People First Party's (PFP) often-rumored, but never realized, merger with the KMT. 

* Since Hou WILL NOT accept a VP role because the KMT "has 14 city mayors and county magistrates, along with 35 seats in the Legislative Yuan (LY)," the grand old party will not accept anything less than atop the ticket. Since Ke needs to make himself a more formidable candidate, joining forces with Gou wouldn't be a bad tactical move. However, whether Gou would accept the second spot on the ticket remains to be seen.

 The Next Phase Begins...

* Terry Gou and his running mate, Ms. Lai Pei Hsia, officially qualified to become write-in candidates for the presidential election next January. Starting on September 19, they'll have 45 days to gather nearly 290,000 signatures, along with photocopies of national identification card from each. Though the task has been accomplished by others before, it's not going to be a walk in the park. The Central Election Commission (CEC) will then review the submitted write-in petitions and make the final results known on November 14, 2023, before the field is finalized.

* Despite repeated pledges to stay in the race until the end, questions persist if Terry Gou would risk breaking the opposition camp apart and hand an easy victory to DPP's William Lai. It's unclear if the opposition camp can come together to form a combined ticket, most likely after KMT's Hou You-yi comes back next week from his current trip to the US. However, if there's little room for maneuvering as everyone insists on heading the ticket, prospects are bleak for any efforts at unifying the opposition. It is a simple concept that seems to have gone out of fashion within the opposition.

* With less than 100 days left in the campaign, the ruling DPP and Lai appear headed toward a not-too-difficult victory. In the coming weeks, opposition will likely expose alleged scandals of the ruling party. However, unless the accusation is substantiated AND is directly connected to Lai himself, overcoming a 10- to 15-point deficit in the opinion polls seems a bridge too far for the KMT, the TPP, and Terry Gou.