The Final Countdown

* With 48 hours left before Taiwanese voters go to the polls, the "9-in-1" local elections on November 29 are heating up.

* The election results may change the political landscape of the island, and they can serve as a preliminary indicator of how the two leading political parties--the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)--will fare going into the 2016 presidential campaign, scheduled for March 2016. The winning party will have, at least, the momentum.

* Among the 22 cities and counties, six remain in the "too-close-to-call" categories--Taipei City, Taichung City, Changhua County, Yunlin County, Chiayi City, and Penghu County. The DPP is expected to make considerable gains amidst poor government performance.

* The biggest "prize" in the weekend elections is the mayoral contests in Taipei and Taichung. Since the KMT currently holds both of these seats, the pressure is on the ruling party to keep them in the Blue camp.

* Since these elections are local in nature, few would anticipate any "spillover" effect onto the economy or cross-Strait relations. While Beijing would like to continue "city-to-city" exchanges no matter who wins, the "1992 consensus" will remain a prerequisite. On the other hand, no major breakthroughs are expected either, especially if the DPP emerges victoriously Saturday night.

Taiwan's "9-in-1" local elections on November 29-Part II

l  KMT’s strategy in the next 14 days:

(1)  “Rejuvenate” the rank-and-file with policy incentives, e.g. infrastructure upgrading and improved government retirees' benefits;

(2)  Turn the campaign into a “Blue vs. Green” showdown; and

(3)  Emphasize the possible “domino effect” on 2016 presidential race if the KMT loses on November 29.

l DPP’s strategy in the next 14 days:

(1)   Stay away from a “Blue vs. Green” showdown, particularly in Taipei, and focus on “quality-of-life” issues, e.g. education, affordable housing and food safety;

(2)   Keep hitting the KMT where it hurts the most: lack of leadership, poor governability, economic malaise, cross-Strait stalemate and corruption; and

(3)   Ma and his administrative team are “out of touch” with the ordinary people.

Taiwan's “9-in-1” local elections on November 29

l  Including city mayors, county magistrates, council seats, township administrators, town representatives, borough chiefs, district leaders, village heads, and village liaisons, Taiwan will hold the first-ever “9-in-1” elections on November 29. With approximately over 18 million eligible voters, turnout is expected in the 65-75% range, weather permitting. Roughly 11,130 officials, in 22 cities and counties, will be popularly elected on that day.

l  Mayoral elections at the six Direct Municipalities—Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung—have attracted the most attention. Currently the KMT has four of the six seats, but ruling party is struggling in Taipei and Taichung. The results from these two races will determine which party—KMT or DPP—wins the yearend contest.

When things become a bit touchy

* In his National Day address, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou urged Beijing to "move toward constitutional democracy"---a clear departure from the usual conciliatory tone in recent years.

* Beijing was swift in its response. The State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) felt the remarks were "unhelpful" to cross-Strait relations and external forces, including Taiwan, should not interfere with China's domestic affairs.

* China-Taiwan relations will likely slow down a bit since Beijing has rejected the idea of a cross-Strait summit between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping during next month's APEC Leaders' Conference in Beijing. Though it was something both sides desired, traditional ideological inhibitions, i.e. cross-Strait relations are China's internal affairs, made it inappropriate to take place at an international setting like APEC.

* Coupled with the continuing standoff in Hong Kong over universal suffrage and the upcoming "9 in 1" local elections in Taiwan on November 29, domestic political factors on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will preclude new initiative by either Beijing or Taipei---at least until the end of the years. But there will be no derailment in the ongoing cross-Strait rapprochement. "Slow but stable" are the operative words in the coming months.

台灣即將在十一月二十九號舉行「九合一」選舉。隨著選戰進入下半場，各地選情也將逐步加溫。因為提出的口號與政見相差有限，候選人的人格特質往往成為決定勝負的關鍵。

    有人說台灣的選舉像嘉年華，過程熱鬧，鮮少冷場。候選人的知名度與媒體形象，遠比政見內容來得重要，因而選出了不少的「人形立牌」，把自己當作政治偶像，愛自己超過關懷基層，握手剪綵永遠跑第一，至於勘災救難，對不起，通常要多等一等。

政治人物懂得「愛自己」沒有不好，也沒有不對，但若僅止於此就容易形成「不沾鍋」，難與民眾感同身受，更遑論「苦民所苦」。但身為地方首長及民代就是要關注民眾的生活大小事，從交通到教改，環保到管線安全，誰能真正解決這些看似雞毛蒜皮的事情，誰就會成為選戰倒數的關注焦點。

有人把年底九合一選舉當做2016的前哨戰，感覺有些牽強。畢竟是不同層級的選舉，候選人不同，民眾關心的議題不同，兩年後的客觀環境也不一樣。但從這次的選戰，可以讓人一窺各個政治人物的風格理念與領袖特質，有沒有從大處著眼，小處著手，關注柴米油鹽醬醋茶等大小事，真正做到「治大國如烹小鮮」。綜觀有志於2016的藍綠政治人物，似乎都還有一段距離。