So...the Year of the Loong Begins

* China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao celebrated the Year of the Dragon, or Loong (青龍年），with a seven-day recess. Starting on February 15, people will return to their workplaces amidst economic uncertainties in China and Hong Kong, and an unpredictable cross-Strait relationship following the election of Lai Ching-teh as Taiwan's next president on January 13.

* Over the past week, there were the usual, now almost routine, flight and naval cruiser incursions around Taiwan. There weren't anything out of the ordinary, so most people in Taiwan carried on their Lunary New Year festivities as usual. Many residents journeyed abroad with families and friends, and increasing numbers of visitors from, among other places, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia came to the island because of, among other things, geographic proximity and relatively inexpensive standards of living, giving indications that both inbound and outbound tourism is slowly returning to the pre-COVID levels.

* For the ruling DPP, the president-elect Lai has been busy putting a cabinet together before inauguration on May 20. Though recruiting non-DPP members into government remains a priority, it will largely stay a DPP-dominated administration with few political appointees from other parties to represent an "inclusive governing coalition."

* Across the Strait, Beijing already has a plateful of pressing issues with long-term implications. Beginning with a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, especially among those 40 and under, economic goal-setting, maybe for the first time, has more unknowns than answers this time around. With the US-China economic competition remaining intense, few in the government are certain if any of the stimulus measures, once implemented, would lead to the desired results. In addition, the sagging stock markets have undermined the public's confidence in the ruling CCP's abilities to address economic matters. That's never a good sign in a command economy.

* What makes cross-Strait relations tricky, and potentially dangerous, this year is the number of unknowns and unpredictables. While it's not a priority for the CCP to "resolve" the Taiwan issue now, president-elect Lai's past independence-leaning rhetorics have put Beijing's policy makers on the edge of their seats. Furthermore, since there is no channels of communication between Beijing and Taipei, any misinterpretation of the other's words and deeds runs the risks of a minor incident spiraling out of control. Though that's been a priority for Washington and neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, it does not appear imminent that the current impasse will have a breakthrough this year. Therein lies the risks of miscalculation.