A New Legislative Session Gets Underway

*  Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) began a new session February 20. Despite many new faces and a new leadership in the LY, however, a verbal war of words broke out between first-year legislators from the KMT and the DPP. Though the confrontation did not deteriorate, it was an early glimpse of what the LY has in store for the three political parties--KMT, DPP, and the TPP--in the next four years.

* As a minor party with eight seats, the TPP remains elusive on collaboration with either the KMT or DPP on key pieces of legislation. It is possibly the best strategic position for the TPP, as it strives to maintain its autonomy amidst divisive political landscape on the island. The goal is to develop TPP's grassroots organizations around the island, making it more than a party for the young, urban professionals.

* Undoubtedly, since President-elect Lai Ching Teh captured only 40% of the popular vote, the LY will be an integral part of government policymaking if the ruling DPP plans to get anything accomplished in the next four years. It won't be easy because it is now the KMT, not the DPP, that holds the largest number of seats at 54. While a KMT-DPP legislative collaboration cannot be ruled out completely, such an occasion will be few and rare. 

* Though the presidential election just concluded on January 13, it's never too early to speculate on 2026 (local mayoral elections) and 2028 (next presidential and legislative contests). Though a lot of names have been mentioned for the upcoming elections, a zillion things can happen between now and then. It can be a political thermometer for "who's in, who's out," but no one can say with any degree of certainty what, and who, will lead the pack when the time comes. therefore, let's indulge in the speculation exercise to keep the dreams alive for those aspiring participants!

 When there is no communication...

* A Chinese fishing high-speed boat with four fishermen on board capsized on Wednesday, February 14, 2024, near the Kinmen islands while being pursued by the Taiwanese coast guard. The subsequent chase between the parties led to all four Chinese fishermen aboard falling into the water, which resulted in two deaths. Another two are in custody of Taiwanese authorities and recovering in the hospital.

* When the incident first happened, both China and Taiwan kept their respective "cool" and refrained from making claims that would further undermine the already-fragile trust between the two neighbors in the Taiwan Strait. However, things have intensified as official rhetorics from both sides started to point fingers at the other side for wrongdoing in handling the incident. 

* In fact, the Chinese coast guard on February 18 stated that it "will strengthen maritime law enforcement in the waters to help maintain the order of maritime operations." At the minimum, the risks of another similar incident have increased following the toughened position of both sides.

* Since two sides have not maintained channels of communication since 2016, it remains a flashpoint between China and Taiwan over fishing rights. Unless there is a dramatic shift in the DPP administration's policy vis-a-vis China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait will likely remain high before President-elect Lai Ching-teh inaugurates on May 20. It also paints a gloomy picture over cross-Strait relations for the next four years, at least.

 So...the Year of the Loong Begins

* China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao celebrated the Year of the Dragon, or Loong (青龍年），with a seven-day recess. Starting on February 15, people will return to their workplaces amidst economic uncertainties in China and Hong Kong, and an unpredictable cross-Strait relationship following the election of Lai Ching-teh as Taiwan's next president on January 13.

* Over the past week, there were the usual, now almost routine, flight and naval cruiser incursions around Taiwan. There weren't anything out of the ordinary, so most people in Taiwan carried on their Lunary New Year festivities as usual. Many residents journeyed abroad with families and friends, and increasing numbers of visitors from, among other places, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia came to the island because of, among other things, geographic proximity and relatively inexpensive standards of living, giving indications that both inbound and outbound tourism is slowly returning to the pre-COVID levels.

* For the ruling DPP, the president-elect Lai has been busy putting a cabinet together before inauguration on May 20. Though recruiting non-DPP members into government remains a priority, it will largely stay a DPP-dominated administration with few political appointees from other parties to represent an "inclusive governing coalition."

* Across the Strait, Beijing already has a plateful of pressing issues with long-term implications. Beginning with a sluggish economy and rising unemployment, especially among those 40 and under, economic goal-setting, maybe for the first time, has more unknowns than answers this time around. With the US-China economic competition remaining intense, few in the government are certain if any of the stimulus measures, once implemented, would lead to the desired results. In addition, the sagging stock markets have undermined the public's confidence in the ruling CCP's abilities to address economic matters. That's never a good sign in a command economy.

* What makes cross-Strait relations tricky, and potentially dangerous, this year is the number of unknowns and unpredictables. While it's not a priority for the CCP to "resolve" the Taiwan issue now, president-elect Lai's past independence-leaning rhetorics have put Beijing's policy makers on the edge of their seats. Furthermore, since there is no channels of communication between Beijing and Taipei, any misinterpretation of the other's words and deeds runs the risks of a minor incident spiraling out of control. Though that's been a priority for Washington and neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea, it does not appear imminent that the current impasse will have a breakthrough this year. Therein lies the risks of miscalculation.

 Bracing for a New Political Landscape...

* The Legislative Yuan (LY) will convene on February 20, with a first KMT-backed speaker and vice speaker tandem in eight years. In addition, smaller parties like the People First Party (PFP) and New Power Party (NPP) failed to win any seat to form a caucus. Therefore, it's now a three-party affair between the KMT, DPP, and TPP in the coming four years.

* There are indications that the TPP plans to utilize its eight seats to the fullest and will work with both the KMT and DPP on legislations that fit its party's interests. The most important task for the TPP is to develop its grassroots organization around Taiwan, continue its strong hold on voters below 40, and avoid being labeled as a "small green" or "small blue" party. In other words, if the TPP gets too close with either the KMT or DPP, it's easy to blur the party lines and makes a "political merger" with either inevitable. Since TPP Chairman Ke Wen-je has presidential aspirations for 2028, party independence is indispensable to remain politically viable.

* The KMT and the DPP, on the other hand, will explore ways to work together when the legislative agenda fits their respective party interests. They will compete, contend, and collaborate in the next four years. No one knows how the inter-party relations will look, but violence will not be commonplace. That's a welcome change from Taiwan's LY when little room for rational debate remained available.