Twin-City Forum Resumes

* First started in 2010, the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum returns August 30-31, 2023. It was staged as a platform where the two cities could explore ways to broaden areas of collaboration and deepen bilateral relationship. Since the Forum is confined to Taipei and Shanghai, it was designed to supplement cross-Strait relations, in good or bad times.

* While substantive results were limited in the last 13 years, the mechanism has become an indicator of the state of cross-Strait relations, as well as a model of local-level exchanges for both sides. With the election of KMT's Wayne Chiang, who is also Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's great grand son, as Taipei mayor last November, it is no surprise to see the resumption of the Twin-City Forum this week.

* Chiang's visit to Shanghai will be a time for the CPC to get a closer look and understand the 4th-generation Chiang a little better. Though he's been on the job for less than a year, the younger Chiang has been cautious and low-key, while staying away from controversial issues. However, since two former Taipei mayors--Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou--have gone on to become ROC president, many expect Chiang to stay politically relevant by NOT committing any major policy missteps. If he does play his cards right, a presidential run in 2032, when Chiang is just 54, should not be ruled out.

Terry Gou Made it Official... 

* Foxconn Founder Terry Gou called a news conference on August 28 and declared his candidacy for president. Though he has been at the bottom of most opinion polls in recent months in a possible four-way race, he appeared unfazed and believed his "numbers will climb upward" after today's official announcement.

* Gou's decision to join the race was not a surprise. His aspiration to contest the top political office on the island is no secret. Though his first crack at the presidency was not successful in 2020, he has remained active in the public domain since, most notably the purchase of five million doses of BNT's anti-corona virus vaccine at the peak of the pandemic in 2021. Many thought he had given up on pursuing the presidency and would just remain a philanthropist on social and biotech issues, but Gou's political ambition "resurfaced" last April when he took part in the opposition KMT's nomination process. Yet again, he came up short and lost the nomination to New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi.

* Now Gou's needs to undertake a signed-petition drive and must exceed 290,000 copies, which is 1.5% of the total electorate in the last presidential election, to put his name on the ballot. Despite Gou's optimistic beat at the news conference, it is a formidable challenge, particularly for someone that lacks grassroots organization to coordinate and reach that goal. Besides, a prospective candidate only has 45 days--from September 19 to November 2--to get the job done. In this day and age where a premium is placed on personal data protection, it's going to be tight.

* Some believe Gou is pursuing a strategy of "stop me, if you dare." He doesn't expect the KMT or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) to take him seriously unless he has made significant progress toward becoming a candidate. Launching his candidacy today and making a split in the pan-Blue (KMT) camp a looming reality will achieve that objective. However, Gou would not want to risk shouldering the responsibility of breaking apart the opposition alliance, but he wants a seat at the table and be treated as equal.

* It would be premature for the DPP's William Lai to declare victory following Gou's announcement today, though that prospect is getting brighter. In a four-way race with Gou in it, Lai is expected to win a landslide. Everyone knows it's simple mathematics. Only the leaders of the opposition seemingly don't get it since everyone just sits and waits for someone else to make a mistake, either strategic or substantive. But the clock is ticking.....   

Is Lai a Shoo-in?

* Taiwan's incumbent vice president, William CT Lai, who is simultaneously the ruling DPP's presidential nominee, has been leading in the polls by a sizable lead since he was nominated in March. The lead grew in the last two weeks upon Lai's return from an overseas trip in mid-August. 

* The increased lead was actually not a surprise, but a carefully engineered event meant to make Lai look "presidential." Beginning with interviews with major news, Lai received largely positive press coverage that was designed to ease anxiety resulted from his remarks on "being a pro-independence pragmatist." Though concerns over those yesteryear's remarks may never disappear completely, Lai has apparently made some people, particularly in Washington's policy circles, sleep a little better at night.

*  How about the non-DPP opposition parties? Though everyone talks about "unifying behind a single ticket," there has been little, if any, steps taken to make that a reality. That shouldn't surprise anyone either since: (1) democracy is an import. Having elections doesn't translate to people truly know what democracy is. It also happens elsewhere, including the US where a certain former president refused to acknowledge defeat and kept advocating "the 2020 election was stolen," and (2) the three presidential aspirants--KMT's Hou You-yi, TPP's Ke Wen-je, and Foxconn Founder Terry Gou--simply don't like each other. No one appreciates the value of compromise, which a fundamental idea in any democracy. Apparently it doesn't happen within Taiwan's opposition camp.

* The election is still almost five months away, so a lot could happen to make it truly competitive. However, unless either (1) the opposition can miraculously form a unified ticket, or (2) Lai commits a major misstep in the campaign, the election will be won by the one that once advocated dejure independence.