Off to the Races.....

* The opposition Kuomintang (KT) is expected to draft and nominate a presidential candidate on May 17. Among the two leading contenders, most believe New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi will get the nod next week. However, since the two are neck-to-neck in most opinion polls, it remains to be seen how the KMT would reconcile differences, and possibly divisions, caused during the party primary.

* No matter who gets the nomination, it will be a tough uphill battle against the current vice president and presidential nominee of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), William Ching-Te Lai. Besides being the incumbent vice president, Lai is ahead in most polls by a margin of 5-8 percentage points. Following the KMT's formal nomination, however, the margin is expected to shrink, though not significantly.

* KMT's other presidential contender, Foxconn founder Terry Gou, is doing his best to earn the trust of the party's rank-and-file. In fact, many party die-hards still hold grudges against Gou for breaking with the party in 2020 after failing to secure nomination. Gou has publicly apologized for what transpired four years ago, but it remains a bitter pill for the grassroots to swallow following suffering a devastating defeat four years ago.

* The knock on New Taipei Mayor Hou rests on his lack of experience in managing international and cross-Strait relations. With a career in law enforcement, Hou only got into politics in 2010 after becoming New Taipei City's vice mayor, and eventually was elected mayor in 2018. He has never been known for strong ideological orientation, hence the deep-Blue (KMT's fundamentalists) doesn't expect him to pursue KMT's traditional stance on cross-Strait relations, e.g. the acceptance of the1992 consensus. This may indeed be the key to how the non-partisan and middle-of-the-road voters would cast their ballots on January 13, 2024.