A Slow Return to Normalcy?

 * Based on CDC's numbers in recent days, the outbreak has seemingly been on the decline. The confirmed COVID-19 cases have remained in the 50-80 range since Monday. These are encouraging signs, and some municipalities have taken steps to gradually relax restrictions on business and commercial activities.

* A few selected night markets have been given the green light to experiment with a "soft" reopening. While masks are still mandatory, the gathering of crowds not larger than 100 seemed to have been relaxed. While many of the street vendors welcome the relaxed measures, others remain cautious and rather wait until the alert level drops to 2 and herd immunity is achieved through vaccination. 

* After the lifting of current level-three restrictions, it will probably take a few more months before commercial activities are back to the pre-outbreak levels. The cumulative impact on the island's economy, however, could be considerable. More importantly, the adverse economic effects may spillover into the next election expected in November 2022. More fiscal stimuli maybe forthcoming.

The Changing Fortunes of Politicians

* The recent COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan, and the subsequent efforts to contain it, have had differing impact on the political fortunes of the major political parties and leading political figures on the island. While the recent opinion-survey results showed a realignment of some likely presidential hopefuls for 2024, there is plenty of time left for their political fortunes to change before the race officially kicks off, most likely in the first quarter of 2023.

*  According to the latest survey results, New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih is the first among equals, followed closely by Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe. In a mild surprise, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai came in third, and, once considered a rising political star in the ruling DPP, Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wentsan had fallen to a disappointing fourth, primarily because of the mismanagement of the most recent outbreak since mid-May.

*  For the major political parties, while the ruling DPP had expectedly slipped in favorable image, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) did not capitalize on the government's subpar performance over COVID-19, however. The biggest gains went to Mayor Ke Wenzhe's Taiwan People's Party (TPP), primarily because of widespread discontent over the intensifying bickering between the DPP and the KMT. Though Ke's management of the outbreak in Taipei leaves much to be desired, he and the TPP were wise politically to stay above the political fray when most were looking for someone to blame.

* The next presidential poll will take place in January 2024, and the domestic political landscape will likely change many times over in the next 30+ months. It is simply too early to predict which party, and which politician, would hold the upper hand at that time. If the DPP regains public trust when, and if, it receives plenty of vaccines and gets the recent outbreak under control in the coming months, political tides could change quickly. Conversely, if the vaccine shortage continues and the outbreak rages on, the opposition KMT and TPP stand to benefit significantly, beginning with the mayoral elections of November 2022.

And the Lockdown Continues...

 * The Tsai administration officially extended the current level-three COVID-19 alert for another two weeks until July 12. It was not a huge surprise as the lack of vaccines, hence vaccination, remains the biggest hinderance to the ongoing fight against the deadly pandemic.

* With periodic reports of deaths apparently resulting from getting the vaccines, there's been a noted slowdown, especially among the elderly, in the island's drive to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible. It is frustrating for the government, and it is a real concern for those who are eligible for the vaccines.

* Besides FoxConn and TSMC, a number of civic and religious organisations have stepped forward and submitted import petitions to procure BNT vaccines. There has been limited progress because of factors beyond public health considerations. The stalled vaccine shipments may prove to be the difference in bucking the ongoing outbreak and turn the tide around.

A Whole New World?

 * U.S. President Joe Biden had a busy week in Europe--the first overseas trip since taking over the White House on January 20. From the G7 meeting to the first US-Russia Summit since July 2018, he wanted to reassure European allies that "America is back" and the trans-Atlantic partnership is as strong as ever. However, before the U.S. can restore trust and reassert its influence in international affairs, Washington has to make sure that allies and partners--past, present, and future ones--are on board and it is not alone.

* Four years of Donald Trump have left lasting imprints that undermined U.S. trustworthiness which won't be erased overnight. Doubts will linger as things have changed--in big and small ways--on the international scene. Coupled with the comprehensive rise of China, it is no longer an unipolar world. 

* Biden and his advisors know that China remains the top priority, and the U.S. needs to regroup and regain the trust of allies before moving forward in unison is possible. In addition, the complexity of the US-China relations should caution policymakers to "pick and choose" its battles carefully. Altered international circumstances may limit options that were once considered automatic.

Light at the End of Tunnel?

 * Covid-19 vaccines, or the lack thereof, continues to be a focus in Taiwan as the island struggles to contain the most serious outbreak since the pandemic began some 18 months ago. The majority of the currently available AZ vaccines are reserved for front-line health workers, police and fire fighters, and seniors over 80. The pace is slow, and a number of deaths have been reported in recent days, with the CODs yet to be determined. Unfortunately this may heighten reluctance among some to receive the vaccine shots, despite eligibility.

*  A more encouraging news surfaced this morning as FoxConn founder, Mr. Terry Gou, posted the latest in his FB account on his attempt to procure 5 million doses of BNT vaccines, which will be subsequently donated to the local health authorities for allocation. Though nothing appeared conclusive, Gou sounded optimistic as the planned vaccine purchase inches slowly toward fruition. More importantly, if Gou's vaccine purchase proves to be successful, he would have blazed a trail that other religious and corporate leaders could follow suit. Coupled with the pending EUA of the two indigenous vaccines--Medigen and United BioPharma--the outlook looks cautiously optimistic as the island heads into summer. 

* While some might have hoped the ongoing vaccine shortage in Taiwan could be an opportunity for a thaw in cross-Strait relations, there simply wasn't enough goodwill on either side to break the impasse. Official rhetorics from both sides have not been helpful, and each has accused the other of "putting politics above public health concerns." In addition, the frequent and intensified encroachments of Taiwan's ADIZ by Chinese fighter jets in recent days have stirred up a new wave of anti-China sentiments in Taiwan. There is simply no political will--on either side--to repair the damaged relations across the Taiwan Strait since 2016.

Politics as Usual

* Amidst the worst outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic, Taiwan remains divided along part lines. From vaccine procurement to the application of indigenous ones, there is little, if any, consensus between the leading camps. While the situation seemed to have stabilised in recent days, with confirmed cases dropping below below 200, there is no indication that the ongoing "war of words" would let up anytime soon.

* There are many reasons for political division within Taiwan. The lack of an islandwide consensus on key issues is probably the most critical. This makes policy formulation generally not inclusive enough, and the ruling party--whether the DPP or the KMT--often risks alienating segments of population long ignored.

* Vaccine procurement remains the top priority in the ongoing fight against Covid-19. The debate is also intensifying over the indigenous vaccines, which will likely receive EUA from Taiwan's health authorities as early as next month. While cases might have dropped and the situation appears stabilising, public health threats will continue if vaccines remain in short supply.    

A Rude Awakening

 * Taiwan has been in a virtual realty (VR) show since the Covid-19 outbreak first began in late 2019. There was minimal disruption to the quality of life on the island, and for the overwhelming majority, people's lives in 2020 were as normal as before--school remained open and work went on as usual. Other than wearing masks and washing hands, foreign visitors could hardly tell they were traveling and visiting a foreign country on the same planet in a pandemic year.

* However, things quickly took a turn for the worse in mid-May, when health authorities' "virus containment policy" was breached and cases quickly spread throughout the island. In recent days, confirmed cases have exceeded 10,000, with an average daily death toll in the 20s-30s range.

* These recent developments were new to everyone--the administration, businesses, schools, and even the night marketeers. Everyone has been trying to figure out how and what to do. At the current alert-level three, many people have been under a self-imposed home quarantine since mid-May. Students got an early start to summer since schools will remain closed until the semester's end. A sizable portion of the work force have been put on furlough in recent weeks, with more likely if the outbreak is not contained soon.

* A more worrisome development took place in recent days when confirmed cases skyrocketed in a number of high-tech manufacturing facilities. Emergency health measures were quickly put in place to ensure the spread would be under control. The economic impact would be considerable if the island's "pride-and-joy"--the semiconductor industry--experiences production slowdown, or even plant closure.

Vaccines Needed Here

 * Since the recent spike in confirmed Covid cases, the government in Taiwan has been overwhelmed by calls to procure more vaccines ASAP. Led by Hon Hai founder, Terry Gou, a number of corporate and religious organisations have applied to import vaccines to be distributed by the local health authorities. However, there hasn't been a notable breakthrough despite intensive and coordinated efforts.

*  A local vaccine manufacturer, Medigen Vaccine Biologics Corporation, announced its stage-two, unblind results on June 10. Since the numbers were encouraging, Medigen plans to apply for EUA within days while simultaneously begin the vaccine's stage-three trial.

* The news was a welcomed injection of confidence in Taiwan's ongoing fight against Covid-19. However, significant portions of the public remain skeptical of the indigenous vaccine because: (1) its overall effectiveness against the virus, and (2) its recognition and acceptance by international health organisations, i.e. the WHO. Without the latter, it may not be helpful to bypass quarantine requirements in another country, especially for those who need to travel for work and school.

* It will likely be weeks, if not months, before Taiwan's vaccine crisis is under control. There are some who have traveled overseas to get vaccinated, most particularly to the United States and China. Since they are relatively few in numbers, it will not ease the heightened pressure on government and other organisations to make sure vaccines are readily available to the island's 24-million population.

* As such, herd immunity is not likely in Taiwan until the end of the year, or even early 2022.