Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Missing Piece

* With the opposition KMT expected to produce a presidential nominee by July 14, the media attention quickly turns to Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, who has hinted repeatedly at running for the 2020 race but has yet made up his mind. The ETRC Group believes Ko WILL run for president in 2020 and will declare his candidacy, at the latest, by early August.

* Ko is fully aware that his shot at the top political job in Taiwan is now, not four years later when a new generation of political leaders, among other, Taiyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tseng (DPP) and New Taipei Mayor Ho Yue-i (KMT), could be in line to challenge the presidency. Prospects are not particularly bright for Ko if he waits until 2024.

* If he does declare his candidacy, Ko will be confronted with a difficult choice: whether he would run as an independent (an islandwide write-in campaign required), or he would join a political party and be its nominee. The People First Party (PFP), or former Taiwan Provincial Governor James Soong's party, may be the most likely option.

* Becoming the PFP's presidential nominee is a double-edged sword for Ko politically. While it would save him the time and trouble of launching a write-in campaign, Ko would have to "inherit" the party's political liability. Furthermore, it may turn off voters since Ko would lose the appeal as an independent not embroiled in Taiwan's highly confrontational partisan politics. Therefore, as we believe Ko has made up his mind to run, he does not appear set on "how" to operationalize his plans. The next two weeks will be the key.

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