Friday, February 8, 2019

Misplaced Optimism?

* Just when most thought the US-China trade war would likely come to an end before the 90-day deadline, President Donald Trump struck a cautionary tone over another summit with Chinese President Xi-Jin-ping before the end of the month.
* In the next two weeks, Washington's focus is clearly on the second US-North Korea summit during February 27-28. The challenge will be more formidable for both Trump and Kim Jong-un, and there is no indication that some concrete deliverables are imminent.
* Trump's recent statement could be a tactical move to apply pressure on Beijing to ensure an agreement at the second Trump-Kim summit. At the very least, Washington wants to make sure that there's very little, if any, room for Beijing to maneuver amidst rising expectations over denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.
* Despite attempts by all sides to leverage one thing with another, i.e. trade deal with a denuclerization pact, it seems unlikely US-China trade war will continue indefinitely. However, getting a trade deal done is just the beginning, and frictions will not disappear overnight.
    

No comments: