Thursday, February 14, 2019

Decision Time?

* In the next thirty days, Taiwan media will stay preoccupied with the island's 2020 presidential and legislative elections as nominations approach--specifically who will run and who will sit out. Primaries for both the KMT and the DPP will begin around March-April, but the former remains divided over how the presidential primary will be conducted. No matter how the issue is resolved in the end, controversy will linger for months, thus making party unity a difficult, if not impossible, goal to attain.
* The ruling DPP appears to have slowly recovered from the devastating loss in last November's mayoral election. In addition, Chinese President Xi Jin-ping's remarks on January 3 have proved to be, ironically, a popularity booster for Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen as her job-approval rating and level of support have both rebounded since beginning of the year. It seems highly unlikely that the DPP will nominate anyone but Tsai in next year's presidential race.
* Another wild card is Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je. An unconventional politician, Ko's popularity has steadily declined in recent months, and many believe the once physician-turned-politician has not done much to improve the quality of life in Taiwan's capital city over the past four years.
* Though political pundits expect Ko to make official his presidential bid soon, he is non-committal at this time. With a trip to the US next month, most expect a decision by April. If Ko does throw his hat into the ring, it will make the 2020 race another three-way contest, reminiscent of the 2000 campaign between James Soong, Lien Chan, and Chen Shui-bian.

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