Saturday, November 3, 2018

Prelude to Reconciliation?

* After months of tensions and escalating rhetoric, US President Donal Trump and Chinese President Xi Jin-ping had a phone conversation last week over trade. Though no details were given, the exchange was apparently productive despite US threats of imposing additional tariffs on $267 billion of Chinese imports.
* Markets around the world, particularly in Asia, reacted favourably to this development, gaining anywhere from 2-4% on 11/1 and 11/2 combined. There is no evidence last week's rebound would translate into a sustained recovery if US-China relations continue to make, albeit incremental, progress. The period leading up to the G20 summit will be critical.
* With midterm elections just days away, some suspect the Trump-Xi phone call was a designed and calculated step by Washington to stabilize battleground states that voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and seize as many seats as possible in those Congressional districts that supported Clinton in 2016. Many of these fiercely contested states were hard hit by the recent US-China trade war, however.
* Beyond just a referendum on Trump't first two years in office, the midterm election results may redefine the remaining two years of his presidency. Though there's been talks of a possible impeachment proceeding against Trump if the Democrats gain control, at least, of the House, they remain premature and speculative. Besides, any more divisive steps by either the Democrats or Republicans would further undermine the already-fragile trust between individuals, groups, and communities in the US under President Trump.
*  There is indication that Trump and Xi will likely meet at the G20 summit in late November, but there is no reason to believe that one meeting would cure all the ills in this complex relationship. The allegations Washington has made against Beijing--not conforming to international norms and practices, uneven playing field, and state interference in the private market--now appear to be exactly what the Trump administration is doing under the guise of "America first." Nationalism and unilateralism may win votes in an election, but who is to pick up the pieces, both domestically and internationally, when the final tabulation is done?

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