Thursday, November 22, 2018

48 Hours and Counting.....

* With two days to go, candidates and political parties are stepping up their last-minute efforts in Taiwan's mayoral elections. Nothing fancy, most candidates plan to "sweep the streets"--touring their electoral district in an open-top truck and waving to supporters and passerby alike--and stage a huge rally on election eve. it is nothing new but has been proven to be effective in the past.
*  A number of key races--Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung--remain too close to call. Results could have far-reaching impact on the political fortunes of political figures beyond candidates themselves.
* Though the elections are local in nature, the fallout, or spillover, will likely carry into the 2020 presidential and legislative elections, which will likely begin after the next Lunar New Year in February 2019.
* It's TOO EARLY for anyone to speculate on 2020. Ample time remains for either the DPP or KMT to make some changes and deliver on their campaign pledges. Since both the presidential and legislative races are national in nature, look for cross-Strait and US-Taiwan relations to be again front-and-centre. Though new proposals are likely, there doesn't seem to be any shortcut to bypass the  essence of "1992 consensus" before ties stabalize.

No comments: