Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The Cavaliers are Coming?

* Two US naval warships sailed through the international waters of Taiwan Strait on October 22. The decision was largely believed to send a strong signal to Beijing as the latter has been fortifying its military presence in the South China Sea. In addition, it could further escalate tensions between the two countries already consumed by a trade war threatening to get out of control.
* Despite strong opposition from the US, Japan, and neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, China's military buildup in the South China Sea has been going on for years. Previous US administrations have tried to put an end to Chinese advances in the region, with very little, if any, concessions from Beijing. Therefore, the Trump administration is now looking beyond just economics, trade and currency to identify new pressure points to bring the two sides back to the negotiation table.
*  Besides the obvious "freedom of navigation operation" assertion, there doesn't seem to be much of a strategic reason for Washington to do this, at this time. Beijing is certainly not happy about this. However, other than the usual rhetoric of "opposing any foreign interference on the Taiwan matter," Beijing is not expected to "go all out" on this issue, as long as it does not become a routine transit for US naval ships in the Western Pacific.
* Interestingly, there has been little media coverage in Taiwan and even less discussion of the matter in other public forums. The DPP administration might have privately welcomed the US naval transit through the Taiwan Strait, but the official response has been limited and restrained. With the mayoral elections just a month away, no one knows for sure how the Taiwan electorate would react to the US naval transit. Any one-sided, self-congratulatory gestures could backfire. If nothing else, this might have been a Christmas present too big, too early.

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