The message behind the numbers

* Though the counting continues, US midterm elections concluded on Tuesday. Democratic Party bucked both history and prevailing sentiments suffered minimal losses in the House of Representatives, with the control of the Senate not to be determined until the run-off election in Georgia on December 6.   

* US voters clearly rejected extreme politics mostly identified with Donal Trump. Many of the GOP nominees closely aligned with Trump lost--some poorly--and the much anticipated "Red Wave" did not happen. Though the GOP may capture the control of the House, albeit by a much smaller margin, in the end, the maneuvering room for legislative agenda-setting is much more limited for the next Speaker.

*  Led by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer, the rise of younger political leaders in both major parties have opened the door for a 2024 presidential showdown where both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are no longer in the lead. There are a lot of variables before the dust settles for the 2024 election, and no one should rule out an encore performance by Biden and Trump when the nomination processes are concluded in the summer of 2024. 

 What Happened to Peace-Building?

* 2022 has been a turbulent year. Though the world is slowly returning to normal after a three-year bout with COVID-19, geopolitical tensions--from Europe to Asia--have heightened risks of armed conflict few, if any, expected. Looking back, none was prepared for what transpired since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

* With the world clearly divided along ideological lines, countries around the globe are running out of "excuses" not to take a side in the quickly changing geopolitical map. No one, at least not outwardly, wants Cold War 2.0, but few are doing anything to alter the projected course and avert the potentially disastrous outcome.

* Besides the ongoing war in Ukraine, many believe the next possible geopolitical conflict could happen in the Taiwan Strait, especially since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Polosi's highly publicized visit to Taipei in early August. While it was a welcomed gesture of the longstanding friendship between the U.S. and Taiwan, the threat of a military conflict has risen exponentially with China staging military exercises around the island and daily jet incursions in the double digits.

* Given the number of official delegations visiting the island since, the taboo once forbidding visits by foreign officials and dignitaries to the island can no longer hinder the continued internationalization of the Taiwan issue, which has long been regarded by Beijing as a "no-no." With heightened likelihood of an a military conflict, Taiwan has taken steps to beef up its defense and military preparedness, including, but not limited to, the purchase of arms from the US and the extension of military training, not conscription, from the current four months to one, possibly two, year.

* Lost in the shuffle between, among other things, the arms buildup and elevated military alertness on the island is the effort to deescalate tensions through the restoration of long-suspended dialogue. Though the continued peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remains the shared interest of all parties concerned, no one--Washington, Beijing, and Taipei included--is doing anything down that avenue. Besides paying mere lip service, few efforts, if any, are devoted in that endeavor, making the prospects of a cross-Strait armed conflict, once unthinkable, unavoidable in the coming years.

* The attention now turns to the proposed Biden-Xi meeting during the G20 Summit. Even if the anticipated summit does happen, few would expect significant breakthroughs in the US-China relations that first began deteriorating when Trump was in office. So much has happened in this vital relationship that few would expect any noticeable improvement with one single meeting.