Ready, set, go!

* With both President Tsai Ing-wen and Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu returning today from overseas trips, the presidential primaries for both the DPP and the KMT are about to move up a notch, indications are that neither major party has a clear favourite, with the elections just nine months away.

* There doesn't appear to be much room for intra-party reconciliation between Tsai and former Premier William Chin-teh Lai. To launch his primary bid, Lai just came out with a tell-all book that detailed his differences with Tsai over issues ranging from independence to pardoning former President Chen Shui-bian.

* With Lai currently leading Tsai in various polls, the contest will be a hard-fought battle for both. Since recent efforts by party seniors at bridging the two sides have proved to be futile, most expect the primary to run its course and produce a DPP nominee by mid-April.

* The KMT, on the other hand, has its hands full with a field of five hopefuls (three already declared, two are undecided). Though he has made his intentions clear, Han Kuo-yu remains the clear favourite in the polls and among the rank-and-file. Han does not have a justification for running because he's been Kaohsiung mayor for just four months.

* If he runs and gets the nomination, Han will be under tremendous pressure, mostly from the city council and the DPP, to resign. When, and if, that happens, the DPP would likely exploit the opportunity and regain the mayoral seat it has held for over two decades in the subsequent by-election. All things considered, it would not be an easy decision for either Han to the KMT.

* As the weather turns warmer, Taiwan's domestic political scene is about to get a lot hotter. Barring something unforeseen, the DPP will have a presidential nominee by mid-April, but the KMT could take months, until it holds the next party congress in July to confirm the nominee.

當人不讓、捨我其誰？

* 台灣的國民黨及民進黨即將展開2020大選的初選，兩黨都不乏躍躍欲試的有志之士，雖然每個都強調「初選是過程，團結最重要」，但在人人捨我其誰、有我無他的強烈「使命感」驅使下，最後可能還是「面和心不和、團而不能結」。

* 由於兩黨各有長期被看好的提名人，但計畫趕不上變化，這幾個月的發展卻讓原本的領先者（frontrunner）逐步落漆。原來自認會是「一人參選」的蔡英文，被突然殺出的賴清德搞得滿肚子的委屈，覺得難過又窩囊。在啟程拚外交前，蔡特地拋出「三條件論」，覺得對台灣、對民進黨，自己是唯一、也是最適合的人選，在在展現「捨我其誰」的企圖心，但面對來勢洶洶的程咬金，對於初選只能「暗夜吹哨」，有信心、沒把握。

* 相較於民進黨，國民黨的情況更艱難、變數更大。去年1124大選贏得超出預期，讓原本黨內領先的那顆太陽高喊「我是最強」、應該要退休的南霸天疾呼「給我四年」、以及保留「萬分之一機會」的黨領導決定退一步做「幕後的那隻手」，抬轎不願坐轎。但團結從來不是國民黨的強項，初選、協調之後，如果「新郎不是我」，太陽們之間的「團結一心」就成「一團心結」，遑論全黨上下共同努力了！

* 過去三十年來，台灣推動民主，各個層級的選舉讓人民當家作主，但民主的「型」沒有落實民主的「質」，人人都認為「我是對的、最好的」，每每結果不如預期的時候，怨天尤人，總覺得「你不懂我的心」，更對過程裡種種言語的攻訐難以釋懷、最終勝負產生的嫌隙揮之不去，初選會過去，但團結不會來。唉，誰叫民主是個舶來品呢！

316觀察

316補選落幕，各方解讀不一，因立場、期待的落差，分析也各取所需，誠如韓國瑜說的：「贏的沒贏，輸的也沒輸」，各政黨及政治人物都有需要記筆記、畫重點的地方：

（ㄧ）雖然是地方選舉，因為距離2020大選僅十個月，兩黨寸土必爭，過程激烈更激情，各黨內的太陽們搶了版面、掌握了話語權，但是候選人不見了，更遑論政見牛肉在哪裡。

（二）台灣內外環境特殊，兩岸對峙、社會對立在在影響大小選舉。民眾關心經濟民生，但卻又無法擺脫兩岸關係的不確定感。發大財當然好，但能賺多久、要付出什麼？民進黨抓緊「中國威脅」，而看不到機會，國民黨強打「貨出人進」，卻忘了風險管理，選舉結果顯示民眾要的是「兩者兼具」，有點貪心，但並非不可能。

（三）有人認為「韓流退潮」，但韓國瑜不是候選人，他的選票不可能全數移轉，更何況政治人物的魅力（charisma）是建築在「最近你為我做了什麼」上，可行的政見、具體的政績才是保持溫度、不怕退燒的不二法門。

隨著柯文哲訪美，蔡英文、賴清德完成民進黨的初選登記，2020大選已正式起跑。明年大選的主角、配角、乃至於跑龍套的，沒有一個政治素人。熱鬧激情之餘，選民別忘了檢視候選人的政見以及過去的政績，讓316補選裡被鎂光燈遺忘的他們，重新發光發熱，管它明年選戰會掀起什麼潮、哪個流。