Taiwan's Anti-Corruption Campaign 

 * The new chairman of Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), Cheng Wen-tsan, was charged with bribery on July 5, 2024, for actions took place during his tenure as Taoyuan County magistrate from 2014-2022. It was a surprise that shocked many, in and out of, the ruling DPP.

* Shortly following Cheng's arraignment, President Lai Ching-teh reiterated his commitment to clean, corruption free government. So, Cheng's prosecution is viewed locally not as an isolated incident, but possibly the tip of iceberg as Lai pushes ahead with reforms aimed to restore public confidence in DPP governance and the independence of Taiwan's judiciary.

* Following the arraignment, Cheng resigned from his position as SEF chair--exactly one month after his confirmation on June 7. Long regarded as a pragmatic China hand within the DPP, many thought Cheng was in position to thaw the frosty cross-Strait relations and deescalate tensions between the two feuding neighbors. With his removal, however, the outlook remains in limbo until the next SEF chair is nominated and confirmed, latest by early August.

* Cheng has been a rising star in the DPP since his election as Taoyuan magistrate in 2014. During his eight years, Cheng has built relationships with political leaders and influencers across party lines. In addition, he has always maintained a good relationship with former President Tsai Ing-wen, who had, at one time, plans to groom Cheng as the heir apparent. However, Cheng's inability to campaign successfully for DPP nominee during the 2022 mayoral race derailed such plans and subsequently eliminated Cheng as a potential presidential challenger to Lai, the eventual DPP nominee.

* Cheng will likely be bogged down with the courts in the next few years. Though it maybe too early to bypass Cheng completely in future political discussions, the recent corruption allegations maybe too much for anyone to recover.   

 Absolute or Relative?

* KMT legislators are contemplating changes to the "Laws Governing the Election of President and Vice President." Instead of declaring the largest vote getter the winner in future presidential elections, the KMT plans to have a run-off for the top-two vote getters if none gets over 50% on the first ballot. Taiwan People's Party (TPP) intends to join the KMT in amending relevant laws to produce future leaders with a popular mandate at, or above, 50%.

* Those opposing the planned changes claims that the ROC Constitution must amend provisions first, since any democratic election, as currently stated, is won by the largest vote getter. Though there are no provisions against a run-off, any constitutional amendment would require a three quarters majority in the legislature and a subsequent referendum supported by no less than 9,650,000 popular votes. In Taiwan's domestic politics today, that's a tall order for any constitutional revisions.

* In addition, given the political sensitivity associated with any planned constitutional changes, it may lead to strong reactions from Beijing, suspecting the ROC Constitution could be replaced someday. Therefore, it makes any constitutional changes extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid any fallout from mistaken interpretations by any country.

* Since Taiwan will likely have, at least, three candidates in future presidential elections, a run-off would seem to make sense to produce a leader supported by the majority. However, domestic constraints and international implications could make such efforts frustrating and futile. Though the KMT and TPP combined would hold a majority in the LY, it's not nearly enough if the planned target requires amending the ROC Constitution. The controversy, therefore, could make the planned actions moot and political irrelevant. 

Orchestrating a New Cabinet

*  Taiwan's President-elect Lai Ching-teh has been busy putting a new administrative team together while adhering to incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's key policy positions, including cross-Strait relations. Since the ruling DPP is composed of factions, this won't be an easy task as factional balance needs to be maintained.

* In addition, with a minority DPP presence (51 seats) in the Legislative Yuan (LY), collaboration with either the Kuomintang (KMT, with 54 seats) or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP, holding 8 seats) appears inevitable. However, there doesn't seem to be any inter-party foundation to support such an undertaking, at least not on politically sensitive matters. It's therefore likely that Taiwan will see more legislative gridlocks in the next four years.

A New Legislative Session Gets Underway

*  Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) began a new session February 20. Despite many new faces and a new leadership in the LY, however, a verbal war of words broke out between first-year legislators from the KMT and the DPP. Though the confrontation did not deteriorate, it was an early glimpse of what the LY has in store for the three political parties--KMT, DPP, and the TPP--in the next four years.

* As a minor party with eight seats, the TPP remains elusive on collaboration with either the KMT or DPP on key pieces of legislation. It is possibly the best strategic position for the TPP, as it strives to maintain its autonomy amidst divisive political landscape on the island. The goal is to develop TPP's grassroots organizations around the island, making it more than a party for the young, urban professionals.

* Undoubtedly, since President-elect Lai Ching Teh captured only 40% of the popular vote, the LY will be an integral part of government policymaking if the ruling DPP plans to get anything accomplished in the next four years. It won't be easy because it is now the KMT, not the DPP, that holds the largest number of seats at 54. While a KMT-DPP legislative collaboration cannot be ruled out completely, such an occasion will be few and rare. 

* Though the presidential election just concluded on January 13, it's never too early to speculate on 2026 (local mayoral elections) and 2028 (next presidential and legislative contests). Though a lot of names have been mentioned for the upcoming elections, a zillion things can happen between now and then. It can be a political thermometer for "who's in, who's out," but no one can say with any degree of certainty what, and who, will lead the pack when the time comes. therefore, let's indulge in the speculation exercise to keep the dreams alive for those aspiring participants!

 When there is no communication...

* A Chinese fishing high-speed boat with four fishermen on board capsized on Wednesday, February 14, 2024, near the Kinmen islands while being pursued by the Taiwanese coast guard. The subsequent chase between the parties led to all four Chinese fishermen aboard falling into the water, which resulted in two deaths. Another two are in custody of Taiwanese authorities and recovering in the hospital.

* When the incident first happened, both China and Taiwan kept their respective "cool" and refrained from making claims that would further undermine the already-fragile trust between the two neighbors in the Taiwan Strait. However, things have intensified as official rhetorics from both sides started to point fingers at the other side for wrongdoing in handling the incident. 

* In fact, the Chinese coast guard on February 18 stated that it "will strengthen maritime law enforcement in the waters to help maintain the order of maritime operations." At the minimum, the risks of another similar incident have increased following the toughened position of both sides.

* Since two sides have not maintained channels of communication since 2016, it remains a flashpoint between China and Taiwan over fishing rights. Unless there is a dramatic shift in the DPP administration's policy vis-a-vis China, tensions across the Taiwan Strait will likely remain high before President-elect Lai Ching-teh inaugurates on May 20. It also paints a gloomy picture over cross-Strait relations for the next four years, at least.