Wednesday, March 16, 2011

DPP's victory in the March 5 legislative by-elections

* The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) handily won the legislative by-elections on March 5 in Tainan and Kaohsiung Cities.

Vote Total
Vote Share
Hsu Tain-tsair (DPP)
Chen Shu-hui, (KMT)
Chart I. Result of the legislative by-election in Tainan City, March 5, 2011

Vote Total
Vote Share
Lin Tai-hua (DPP)
Hsu Ching-huang (KMT)
Chart II. Result of the legislative by-election in Kaohsiung City, March 5, 2011
* Ahead of the next legislative and presidential elections, the result of the March 5 by-elections was an important indication of: (1) party momentum, (2) unity among the rank-and-file, and (3) the ability to mobilize supporters.

* Besides receiving another boost to the party's morale and momentum, the DPP also saw its vote totals increase in the two by-elections compared with its vote shares in the previous legislative elections held in January 2008.

* On the other hand, although there is no magic formula to cure its woes in the south, the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) will be scrambling in the coming months to “stop the bleeding” and somehow revive “grassroots fervor” that propelled the KMT to its landslide victory in the 2008 presidential race.

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